U. Catolica 4-1 Deportes Copiapo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates U. Catolica at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Deportes Copiapo travel to Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida to take on U. Catolica in Primera División (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Thursday 26 September 2024 at 01:30 UK time.
Form Guide
U. Catolica — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, U. Catolica have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Deportes Copiapo have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Deportes Copiapo's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
On current form, U. Catolica have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for U. Catolica, 0 for Deportes Copiapo and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Apr 2024, ended U. Catolica 1–0 Deportes Copiapo — a U. Catolica win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
U. Catolica in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Deportes Copiapo in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — U. Catolica 57% versus Deportes Copiapo 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (U. Catolica 60% | Deportes Copiapo 51%). Note also that Deportes Copiapo surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while U. Catolica recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects U. Catolica 2.13 xG and Deportes Copiapo 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: U. Catolica attack 1.210 / defence 0.959 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.917 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.164. Deportes Copiapo's defence rating of 1.211 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing U. Catolica's projected output up. Data: built from U. Catolica's last 53 games and Deportes Copiapo's last 54.
Result probabilities: U. Catolica 63% | Draw 20% | Deportes Copiapo 17%. Fair-value odds: U. Catolica 1.59 | Draw 4.99 | Deportes Copiapo 5.81. The model has a clear lean to U. Catolica (63%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, U. Catolica are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (U. Catolica's last 10 home games and Deportes Copiapo's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: U. Catolica 50% (last 10 home games) | Deportes Copiapo 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo | Competition: Primera División, matchday 25 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida • Kick-off: Thursday 26 September 2024 at 01:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: U. Catolica 63% | Draw 20% | Deportes Copiapo 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG U. Catolica 2.13 / Deportes Copiapo 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: U. Catolica attack 1.210 / def 0.959 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.917 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
U. Catolica xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Deportes Copiapo xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo FAQs
What time does U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo kick off?
U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo kicked off at 01:30 UK time on Thursday 26 September 2024 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida.
What was the final score in U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo?
U. Catolica 4 - 1 Deportes Copiapo.
Where is U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida.
What competition is U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo part of?
U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo is a Primera División fixture (matchday 25) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our statistical model gives U. Catolica a 63% chance of winning, Deportes Copiapo a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both U. Catolica and Deportes Copiapo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
U. Catolica's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Deportes Copiapo's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.13. The same calculation in reverse, Deportes Copiapo's attack versus U. Catolica's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from U. Catolica's last 53 games and Deportes Copiapo's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
63%
1.59
20%
4.99
17%
5.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
U. Catolica xG
Total xG
3.16
1.02
Deportes Copiapo xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
5.81
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
12%
8.44
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
2%
49.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are U. Catolica and Deportes Copiapo expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for U. Catolica and 1.02 for Deportes Copiapo, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
U. Catolica come into this having played 53 games, going 22W 15D 16L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, Deportes Copiapo sit at 1.02 PPG from 53 outings (14W 12D 27L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five.
U. Catolica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Deportes Copiapo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
U. Catolica's home form reads 10W 8D 8L across their last 26 home games, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Deportes Copiapo have taken 0.58 points per game from their last 26 away games (3W 6D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Deportes Copiapo's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, U. Catolica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
U. Catolica are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Deportes Copiapo are on 1.15 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
U. Catolica
Blended
Deportes Copiapo
Blended
U. Catolica (Home) vs Deportes Copiapo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
U. Catolica
Blended
Deportes Copiapo
Blended
❓ U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo Form FAQs
What form are U. Catolica and Deportes Copiapo in coming into this match?
U. Catolica have gone 22W 15D 16L in their last 53 games (1.53 PPG), while Deportes Copiapo have gone 14W 12D 27L in their last 53 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — U. Catolica at home or Deportes Copiapo away?
U. Catolica's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — U. Catolica at home: 1.46 PPG; Deportes Copiapo away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2023. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent in our data was on 26 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
U. Catolica have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 May 2023, when U. Catolica won Deportes Copiapo 1-4 U. Catolica.
U. Catolica's record when hosting Deportes Copiapo specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
U. Catolica
1
Draws
0
Deportes Copiapo
Recent Meetings
❓ U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Deportes Copiapo?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, U. Catolica have won 3, Deportes Copiapo have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did U. Catolica and Deportes Copiapo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 September 2024: U. Catolica 4-1 Deportes Copiapo.
Who has won more matches between U. Catolica and Deportes Copiapo?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Deportes Copiapo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — U. Catolica 58%, Deportes Copiapo 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (U. Catolica) and 42% (Deportes Copiapo).
On the defensive side: U. Catolica have failed to score in 27% of games; Deportes Copiapo in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = U. Catolica home games / Deportes Copiapo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ U. Catolica vs Deportes Copiapo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in U. Catolica and Deportes Copiapo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of U. Catolica's recent matches and 46% of Deportes Copiapo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are U. Catolica and Deportes Copiapo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of U. Catolica's recent games and 42% of Deportes Copiapo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do U. Catolica and Deportes Copiapo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of U. Catolica's recent matches and 77% of Deportes Copiapo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant U. Catolica run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Deportes Copiapo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
U. Catolica beat Deportes Copiapo 4-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida, Regular Season - 25, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 2.13 xG and Deportes Copiapo 1.02 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. U. Catolica beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.21 / defence 0.96 against Deportes Copiapo attack 0.92 / defence 1.21, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 63% | Draw 20% | Deportes Copiapo 17%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 60%, Deportes Copiapo 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
U. Catolica's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Deportes Copiapo's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, U. Catolica arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. U. Catolica (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm. Deportes Copiapo (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.