Palestino 1-1 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Coquimbo Unido make the trip to Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna to face Palestino in Primera División, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Monday 17 July 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Palestino's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Palestino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palestino have posted 5W 2D 3L at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Coquimbo Unido have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coquimbo Unido's form when playing away from home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Coquimbo Unido arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Palestino lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Palestino half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Coquimbo Unido half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palestino 54% versus Coquimbo Unido 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palestino 54% | Coquimbo Unido 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palestino 1.29 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palestino attack 1.047 / defence 1.239 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.027 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.149. Data: 46 Palestino games / 46 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palestino 33% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 41%. Fair-value odds: Palestino 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Coquimbo Unido 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Coquimbo Unido are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Palestino 60% | Coquimbo Unido 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna • Kick-off: Monday 17 Jul 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palestino 33% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Palestino 1.29 / Coquimbo Unido 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Palestino attack 1.047 / def 1.239 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.027 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Palestino xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Coquimbo Unido xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 17 July 2023 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What was the final score in Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido?
Palestino 1 - 1 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What competition is Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Palestino a 33% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Palestino and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (3 meetings): Palestino 1W | Draws 2 | Coquimbo Unido 0W.
What form are Palestino and Coquimbo Unido in?
Palestino (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Palestino's attack at 1.05x the league average against Coquimbo Unido's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Coquimbo Unido's attack (1.03x) against Palestino's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
33%
2.99
25%
3.94
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Palestino xG
Total xG
2.76
1.46
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
8%
12.92
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Palestino and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Palestino and 1.46 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Palestino's recent record stands at 18W 14D 14L from 46 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Palestino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coquimbo Unido, meanwhile, have gone 17W 7D 22L across 46 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Palestino against 1.26 for Coquimbo Unido. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Palestino have managed 12W 5D 6L from 23 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Coquimbo Unido's away record stands at 6W 3D 14L across 23 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palestino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Palestino are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.20 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palestino
Blended
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palestino and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Palestino have gone 18W 14D 14L in their last 46 games (1.48 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 17W 7D 22L in their last 46 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palestino at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Palestino's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palestino at home: 1.78 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Palestino or Coquimbo Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Coquimbo Unido in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palestino won 5-1 on 16 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palestino have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Palestino
5
Draws
2
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Coquimbo Unido?
From 10 meetings on record, Palestino have won 3, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Palestino and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Palestino 2-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Palestino and Coquimbo Unido?
Palestino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palestino 61%, Coquimbo Unido 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Palestino) and 48% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Palestino keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Coquimbo Unido in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palestino home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palestino play Coquimbo Unido?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Palestino's recent matches and 48% of Coquimbo Unido's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Palestino's recent games and 48% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palestino and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Palestino have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palestino and Coquimbo Unido share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 17, as Palestino and Coquimbo Unido drew 1-1 in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 1.29 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.46 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 1.05 / defence 1.24 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.03 / defence 1.01, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palestino 33% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 41%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 54%, Coquimbo Unido 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palestino's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palestino 1.48 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Palestino (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.