O'Higgins 1-1 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates O'Higgins at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as O'Higgins face Coquimbo Unido.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Coquimbo Unido make the trip to Estadio El Teniente to face O'Higgins in Primera División (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Saturday 14 September 2024 at 22:30 UK time.
Current Form
O'Higgins's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
O'Higgins at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Coquimbo Unido (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Coquimbo Unido away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Coquimbo Unido edge it 3 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Apr 2024, ended O'Higgins 0–2 Coquimbo Unido — a Coquimbo Unido win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
O'Higgins — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Coquimbo Unido — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — O'Higgins 51% versus Coquimbo Unido 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (O'Higgins 51% | Coquimbo Unido 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: O'Higgins surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Coquimbo Unido have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects O'Higgins 1.24 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: O'Higgins attack 0.793 / defence 1.275 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.815 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.186. O'Higgins's attack rating of 0.793 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.24. O'Higgins's defence rating of 1.275 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Coquimbo Unido's projected output up. Data: built from O'Higgins's last 53 games and Coquimbo Unido's last 53.
Result probabilities: O'Higgins 36% | Draw 27% | Coquimbo Unido 36%. Fair-value odds: O'Higgins 2.74 | Draw 3.67 | Coquimbo Unido 2.75. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 36% to win, with the draw at 27%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — O'Higgins 36% and Coquimbo Unido 36%, with the draw at 27%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: O'Higgins 40% (last 10 home games) | Coquimbo Unido 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, matchday 24 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Saturday 14 September 2024 at 22:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: O'Higgins 36% | Draw 27% | Coquimbo Unido 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG O'Higgins 1.24 / Coquimbo Unido 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: O'Higgins attack 0.793 / def 1.275 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.815 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido level at 36% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
O'Higgins xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Coquimbo Unido xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido FAQs
What time does O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 22:30 UK time on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido?
O'Higgins 1 - 1 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido is a Primera División fixture (matchday 24) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives O'Higgins a 36% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates O'Higgins's attack at 0.79x the league average against Coquimbo Unido's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Coquimbo Unido's attack (0.81x) against O'Higgins's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from O'Higgins's last 53 games and Coquimbo Unido's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
O'Higgins Win
36%
2.74
27%
3.67
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
O'Higgins xG
Total xG
2.47
1.23
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
11%
9.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for O'Higgins and 1.23 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, O'Higgins have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 16W 14D 23L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Coquimbo Unido's form line: 25W 11D 17L from 53 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Coquimbo Unido are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against O'Higgins.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, O'Higgins have posted 0.92 PPG from their last 26 home games (5W 9D 12L).
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 10W 5D 11L from their last 26 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coquimbo Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
O'Higgins are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.38 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido in 60%.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
O'Higgins
Blended
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
O'Higgins (Home) vs Coquimbo Unido (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
O'Higgins
Blended
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
❓ O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido Form FAQs
What form are O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
O'Higgins have gone 16W 14D 23L in their last 53 games (1.17 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 25W 11D 17L in their last 53 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — O'Higgins at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Coquimbo Unido's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — O'Higgins at home: 0.92 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was on 13 June 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, O'Higgins have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
O'Higgins
2
Draws
5
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, O'Higgins have won 2, Coquimbo Unido have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 June 2026: Coquimbo Unido 0-0 O'Higgins.
Who has won more matches between O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
O'Higgins are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — O'Higgins 46%, Coquimbo Unido 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (O'Higgins) and 50% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: O'Higgins have failed to score in 46% of games; Coquimbo Unido in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = O'Higgins home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of O'Higgins's recent matches and 58% of Coquimbo Unido's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of O'Higgins's recent games and 50% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of O'Higgins's recent matches and 54% of Coquimbo Unido's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 24, as O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido drew 1-1 in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting O'Higgins 1.24 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.23 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of O'Higgins attack 0.79 / defence 1.27 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.81 / defence 1.05, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it O'Higgins 36% | Draw 27% | Coquimbo Unido 36%, with O'Higgins to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (O'Higgins 51%, Coquimbo Unido 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
O'Higgins's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.