Nublense 1-1 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nublense at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nublense vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nublense and Everton de Vina meet at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún in Primera División, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 22:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nublense have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Nublense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nublense's home record at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Everton de Vina's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Nublense, 1.40 for Everton de Vina — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Nublense have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Everton de Vina in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading
Nublense half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Everton de Vina half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nublense 48% versus Everton de Vina 28%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nublense 48% | Everton de Vina 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nublense 0.99 xG and Everton de Vina 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nublense attack 0.874 / defence 1.122 | Everton de Vina attack 0.638 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.032 / away 1.291. Data: 26 Nublense games / 25 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nublense 36% | Draw 32% | Everton de Vina 32%. Fair-value odds: Nublense 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Everton de Vina 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nublense at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nublense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Nublense 30% | Everton de Vina 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nublense vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nublense 36% | Draw 32% | Everton de Vina 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Nublense 0.99 / Everton de Vina 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Nublense attack 0.874 / def 1.122 | Everton de Vina attack 0.638 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.032 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Nublense (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Nublense xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Everton de Vina xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nublense vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Nublense vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 22:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What was the final score in Nublense vs Everton de Vina?
Nublense 1 - 1 Everton de Vina.
Where is Nublense vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What competition is Nublense vs Everton de Vina part of?
Nublense vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Nublense vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Nublense a 36% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Nublense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Nublense and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Nublense vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Everton de Vina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nublense and Everton de Vina in?
Nublense (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Everton de Vina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nublense's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Everton de Vina's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. Flip it around — Everton de Vina's attack (0.64x) against Nublense's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 26/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nublense Win
36%
2.80
32%
3.14
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Nublense xG
Total xG
1.91
0.93
Everton de Vina xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
12%
8.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 13.7 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nublense vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Nublense and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Nublense and 0.93 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Nublense vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nublense come into this having played 25 games, going 8W 9D 8L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Nublense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Everton de Vina sit at 1.48 PPG from 25 outings (10W 7D 8L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Nublense against 1.48 for Everton de Vina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Nublense's home form reads 5W 4D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton de Vina have taken 1.25 points per game from 12 outings (4W 3D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nublense are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 0.88 scored and 0.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina in 28%.
Defensively: Nublense have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Everton de Vina in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nublense
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nublense and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Nublense have gone 8W 9D 8L in their last 25 games (1.32 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 10W 7D 8L in their last 25 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nublense at home or Everton de Vina away?
Nublense's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nublense at home: 1.58 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Nublense or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nublense have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nublense have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Everton de Vina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Nublense
4
Draws
2
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, Nublense have won 4, Everton de Vina have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nublense and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Everton de Vina 0-0 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Nublense and Everton de Vina?
Nublense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nublense 42%, Everton de Vina 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Nublense and 17% for Everton de Vina.
On the defensive side: Nublense keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Everton de Vina in 33%; Nublense have failed to score in 33% of games; Everton de Vina in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nublense home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nublense play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Nublense's recent matches and 33% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nublense vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nublense's recent games and 17% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nublense and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Nublense have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nublense and Everton de Vina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nublense and Everton de Vina finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún, Regular Season - 28, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 0.99 xG and Everton de Vina 0.93 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 0.87 / defence 1.12 against Everton de Vina attack 0.64 / defence 1.09, drawn from 26/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nublense 36% | Draw 32% | Everton de Vina 32%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 48%, Everton de Vina 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nublense's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nublense 1.32 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.