Nublense 0-0 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 8 as Nublense welcome Coquimbo Unido to Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas. Kick-off is set for Monday 21 April 2025 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Nublense have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nublense have posted 4W 3D 3L at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Coquimbo Unido have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Nublense) versus 1.00 (Coquimbo Unido). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Nublense have won 3, Coquimbo Unido 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2024, ended 0–1 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Nublense in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Coquimbo Unido in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nublense 53% versus Coquimbo Unido 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nublense 45% | Coquimbo Unido 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nublense 0.99 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nublense attack 0.843 / defence 1.043 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.084 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 0.981. Coquimbo Unido's defence strength of 0.792 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Nublense games / 37 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nublense 31% | Draw 32% | Coquimbo Unido 37%. Fair-value odds: Nublense 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Coquimbo Unido 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Coquimbo Unido are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Nublense 40% | Coquimbo Unido 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas • Kick-off: Monday 21 Apr 2025, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nublense 31% | Draw 32% | Coquimbo Unido 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Nublense 0.99 / Coquimbo Unido 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Nublense attack 0.843 / def 1.043 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.084 / def 0.792 | league avg home 1.488 / away 0.981 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Nublense xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Coquimbo Unido xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 01:00 on Monday 21 April 2025 at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas.
What was the final score in Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido?
Nublense 0 - 0 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas.
What competition is Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Nublense a 31% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Nublense and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (6 meetings): Nublense 3W | Draws 1 | Coquimbo Unido 2W.
What form are Nublense and Coquimbo Unido in?
Nublense (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Nublense's attack at 0.84x the league average against Coquimbo Unido's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Nublense's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
31%
3.20
32%
3.16
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Nublense xG
Total xG
2.10
1.11
Coquimbo Unido xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
10%
9.70
14%
7.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 13.6 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.5 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Nublense and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Nublense and 1.11 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nublense come into this having played 60 games, going 20W 15D 25L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Coquimbo Unido sit at 1.58 PPG from 60 outings (27W 14D 19L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nublense on 1.25 PPG, Coquimbo Unido on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nublense's home form reads 10W 8D 12L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Coquimbo Unido have taken 1.30 points per game from 30 outings (11W 6D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Nublense are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.37 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nublense
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nublense and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Nublense have gone 20W 15D 25L in their last 60 games (1.25 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 27W 14D 19L in their last 60 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nublense at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Coquimbo Unido's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nublense at home: 1.27 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Nublense or Coquimbo Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nublense have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Coquimbo Unido in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nublense and Coquimbo Unido runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Nublense's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Nublense
3
Draws
3
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, Nublense have won 3, Coquimbo Unido have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nublense and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 1-1 Nublense.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nublense 50%, Coquimbo Unido 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Nublense) and 50% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Nublense keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Coquimbo Unido in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nublense home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nublense play Coquimbo Unido?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Nublense's games and 60% of Coquimbo Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Nublense's recent games and 50% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nublense and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Nublense have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nublense's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas, Regular Season - 8, as Nublense and Coquimbo Unido drew 0-0 in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 0.99 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.11 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nublense fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Coquimbo Unido landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 0.84 / defence 1.04 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.08 / defence 0.79, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nublense 31% | Draw 32% | Coquimbo Unido 37%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 45%, Coquimbo Unido 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nublense's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nublense 1.25 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nublense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.