Huachipato 1-1 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Huachipato vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 24 as Huachipato welcome Everton de Vina to Estadio CAP. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 September 2022 at 01:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Huachipato — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Huachipato, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Huachipato's home record at Estadio CAP: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Huachipato are significantly better at Estadio CAP than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Everton de Vina's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Huachipato's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Huachipato register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Everton de Vina in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Huachipato, 1 for Everton de Vina and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Huachipato winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Huachipato in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Huachipato 49% versus Everton de Vina 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Huachipato 40% | Everton de Vina 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Huachipato 1.27 xG and Everton de Vina 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Huachipato attack 1.091 / defence 1.563 | Everton de Vina attack 1.114 / defence 0.777. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.114. Everton de Vina's defence strength of 0.777 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 55 Huachipato games / 55 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Huachipato 25% | Draw 22% | Everton de Vina 53%. Fair-value odds: Huachipato 4.00 | Draw 4.55 | Everton de Vina 1.89. Everton de Vina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.27 / 1.94) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton de Vina are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Huachipato 70% | Everton de Vina 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Huachipato vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio CAP • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Huachipato 25% | Draw 22% | Everton de Vina 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Huachipato 1.27 / Everton de Vina 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: Huachipato attack 1.091 / def 1.563 | Everton de Vina attack 1.114 / def 0.777 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Huachipato xG
Expected Goals
1.94
Everton de Vina xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Huachipato vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Huachipato vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 01:30 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Estadio CAP.
What was the final score in Huachipato vs Everton de Vina?
Huachipato 1 - 1 Everton de Vina.
Where is Huachipato vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio CAP.
What competition is Huachipato vs Everton de Vina part of?
Huachipato vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Huachipato vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Huachipato a 25% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 53% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Huachipato vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Huachipato and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Huachipato vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Huachipato and Everton de Vina?
Record (2 meetings): Huachipato 1W | Draws 0 | Everton de Vina 1W.
What form are Huachipato and Everton de Vina in?
Huachipato (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Huachipato's attack rating (1.09) and Everton de Vina's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus Huachipato's defence, projects 1.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
25%
4.00
22%
4.53
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Huachipato xG
Total xG
3.21
1.94
Everton de Vina xG
4.00
25%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
14%
6.96
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
4%
27.82
15%
6.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Huachipato vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Huachipato and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Huachipato and 1.94 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Huachipato vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Huachipato come into this having played 55 games, going 16W 17D 22L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Huachipato is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Everton de Vina sit at 1.29 PPG from 55 outings (17W 20D 18L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Huachipato on 1.18 PPG, Everton de Vina on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Huachipato's home form reads 10W 8D 9L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton de Vina have taken 1.15 points per game from 27 outings (7W 10D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Huachipato are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.02 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Everton de Vina in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Huachipato
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Huachipato and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Huachipato have gone 16W 17D 22L in their last 55 games (1.18 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 17W 20D 18L in their last 55 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Huachipato at home or Everton de Vina away?
Huachipato's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Huachipato at home: 1.41 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Huachipato or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Huachipato have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Huachipato and Everton de Vina runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Feb 2025, when Huachipato won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Huachipato's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Huachipato
1
Draws
3
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Huachipato and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, Huachipato have won 6, Everton de Vina have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Huachipato and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Everton de Vina 0-3 Huachipato.
Who has won more matches between Huachipato and Everton de Vina?
Huachipato have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Huachipato see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Huachipato 52%, Everton de Vina 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Huachipato) and 30% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: Huachipato keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Huachipato have failed to score in 30% of games; Everton de Vina in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Huachipato home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Huachipato play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Huachipato's recent matches and 48% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Huachipato vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Huachipato's recent games and 30% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Huachipato and Everton de Vina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Huachipato and Everton de Vina finished level at 1-1 at Estadio CAP, Regular Season - 24, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Huachipato 1.27 xG and Everton de Vina 1.94 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Everton de Vina landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Huachipato attack 1.09 / defence 1.56 against Everton de Vina attack 1.11 / defence 0.78, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Huachipato 25% | Draw 22% | Everton de Vina 53%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Huachipato 40%, Everton de Vina 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Huachipato's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Huachipato 1.18 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.