Huachipato 0-1 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero plays host to Huachipato versus Coquimbo Unido in Primera División, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 30 August 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Huachipato have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Huachipato, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Huachipato at Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Huachipato are significantly better at Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero than their overall form suggests.
Coquimbo Unido's overall Primera División record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.30 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Coquimbo Unido arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Huachipato 3W, Coquimbo Unido 2W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Huachipato goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Coquimbo Unido goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Huachipato 47% versus Coquimbo Unido 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Huachipato 55% | Coquimbo Unido 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Huachipato 1.11 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Huachipato attack 1.195 / defence 0.872 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.262 / defence 0.637. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.103. Coquimbo Unido's defence strength of 0.637 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Coquimbo Unido have an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — the away xG of 1.21 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Huachipato games / 51 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Huachipato 33% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 39%. Fair-value odds: Huachipato 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Coquimbo Unido 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Huachipato 50% | Coquimbo Unido 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Aug 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Huachipato 33% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Huachipato 1.11 / Coquimbo Unido 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Huachipato attack 1.195 / def 0.872 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.262 / def 0.637 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Huachipato xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Coquimbo Unido xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 30 August 2025 at Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero.
What was the final score in Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido?
Huachipato 0 - 1 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero.
What competition is Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Huachipato a 33% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (7 meetings): Huachipato 3W | Draws 2 | Coquimbo Unido 2W.
What form are Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido in?
Huachipato (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Huachipato's attack rating (1.20) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (0.64), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Coquimbo Unido's attack (1.26x) against Huachipato's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
33%
3.00
28%
3.55
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Huachipato xG
Total xG
2.32
1.21
Coquimbo Unido xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
10%
10.12
13%
7.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Huachipato and 1.21 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, Huachipato have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 18W 11D 22L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Huachipato is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coquimbo Unido's form line: 27W 14D 10L from 51 games, 1.86 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Coquimbo Unido are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Huachipato.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Huachipato have posted 1.80 PPG from 25 outings (13W 6D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Huachipato are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 13W 4D 8L from 25 away games — 1.72 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Huachipato are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.37 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Coquimbo Unido in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Huachipato
Blended
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Huachipato have gone 18W 11D 22L in their last 51 games (1.27 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 27W 14D 10L in their last 51 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Huachipato at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Huachipato's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Huachipato at home: 1.80 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Huachipato or Coquimbo Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
Huachipato have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Coquimbo Unido in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Coquimbo Unido go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Huachipato have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Huachipato
2
Draws
4
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, Huachipato have won 3, Coquimbo Unido have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Huachipato 1-3 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Huachipato are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Huachipato 48%, Coquimbo Unido 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Huachipato) and 48% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Huachipato keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Coquimbo Unido in 32%; Huachipato have failed to score in 28% of games; Coquimbo Unido in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Huachipato home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Huachipato play Coquimbo Unido?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Huachipato's recent matches and 44% of Coquimbo Unido's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Huachipato's recent games and 48% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Huachipato have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out Huachipato 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Huachipato 0-1 at Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero, Regular Season - 22, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Huachipato 1.11 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.21 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Huachipato fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Huachipato attack 1.20 / defence 0.87 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.26 / defence 0.64, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Huachipato 33% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 39%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Huachipato 55%, Coquimbo Unido 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Huachipato's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Huachipato (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.