Everton de Vina 1-0 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Union Espanola make the trip to Estadio Sausalito to face Everton de Vina in Primera División, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 July 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Everton de Vina (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's home record at Estadio Sausalito: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Union Espanola have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Union Espanola, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Espanola's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Everton de Vina against 2.10 for Union Espanola. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Everton de Vina, 1 for Union Espanola and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Everton de Vina — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Union Espanola — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 57% versus Union Espanola 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 43% | Union Espanola 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.04 xG and Union Espanola 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 1.102 / defence 1.076 | Union Espanola attack 0.849 / defence 0.776. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.133. Union Espanola's defence strength of 0.776 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 47 Everton de Vina games / 47 Union Espanola games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 35% | Draw 30% | Union Espanola 35%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Union Espanola 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 50% | Union Espanola 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jul 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 35% | Draw 30% | Union Espanola 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Everton de Vina 1.04 / Union Espanola 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 1.102 / def 1.076 | Union Espanola attack 0.849 / def 0.776 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Union Espanola xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 23 July 2023 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola?
Everton de Vina 1 - 0 Union Espanola.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola part of?
Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 35% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Everton de Vina and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Union Espanola?
Record (5 meetings): Everton de Vina 2W | Draws 2 | Union Espanola 1W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Union Espanola in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Union Espanola (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Everton de Vina's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Union Espanola's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — Union Espanola's attack (0.85x) against Everton de Vina's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
35%
2.84
30%
3.32
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.08
1.03
Union Espanola xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
13%
7.99
12%
8.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.03 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Everton de Vina come into this having played 47 games, going 16W 19D 12L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union Espanola sit at 1.36 PPG from 47 outings (17W 13D 17L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Union Espanola is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.36 for Union Espanola. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Everton de Vina's home form reads 9W 9D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Espanola have taken 1.26 points per game from 23 outings (8W 5D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.26 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Blended
Union Espanola
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 16W 19D 12L in their last 47 games (1.43 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 17W 13D 17L in their last 47 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Union Espanola away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.57 PPG; Union Espanola away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Everton de Vina won 0-3 on 19 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton de Vina have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Espanola — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
2
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Union Espanola?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 5, Union Espanola have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Everton de Vina 0-0 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Union Espanola?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 52%, Union Espanola 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Everton de Vina) and 44% (Union Espanola).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 26% of games; Union Espanola in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Union Espanola?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 48% of Union Espanola's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 44% of Union Espanola's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Union Espanola tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Union Espanola in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Everton de Vina edge out Union Espanola 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Union Espanola 1-0 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 18, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.04 xG and Union Espanola 1.03 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Union Espanola landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 1.10 / defence 1.08 against Union Espanola attack 0.85 / defence 0.78, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 35% | Draw 30% | Union Espanola 35%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 43%, Union Espanola 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Union Espanola's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.43 PPG, Union Espanola 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Union Espanola (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.