Everton de Vina 1-2 Palestino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Everton de Vina at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton de Vina vs Palestino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 15 as Everton de Vina welcome Palestino to Estadio Sausalito. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 June 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Everton de Vina's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Sausalito this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palestino stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Palestino's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Palestino's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Everton de Vina's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Everton de Vina have won 4, Palestino 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Palestino winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Palestino in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 57% versus Palestino 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 48% | Palestino 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.25 xG and Palestino 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.761 / defence 0.851 | Palestino attack 0.988 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.184. Everton de Vina's attack strength of 0.761 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Everton de Vina games / 44 Palestino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 42% | Draw 29% | Palestino 30%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Palestino 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Everton de Vina dominate the H2H record, yet Palestino are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Palestino (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Everton de Vina 50% | Palestino 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Palestino | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jun 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 42% | Draw 29% | Palestino 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Everton de Vina 1.25 / Palestino 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.761 / def 0.851 | Palestino attack 0.988 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Palestino xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Palestino kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Palestino kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 13 June 2026 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Palestino?
Everton de Vina 1 - 2 Palestino.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Palestino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Palestino part of?
Everton de Vina vs Palestino is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Palestino?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 42% chance of winning, Palestino a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Palestino?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Everton de Vina and Palestino will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Palestino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Palestino?
Record (9 meetings): Everton de Vina 4W | Draws 3 | Palestino 2W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Palestino in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Palestino (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Everton de Vina's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Palestino's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Palestino's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
42%
2.38
29%
3.51
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.24
1.00
Palestino xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
15%
6.45
8%
11.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Palestino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Palestino expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.00 for Palestino, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Palestino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Everton de Vina have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 18W 17D 25L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Palestino's form line: 27W 14D 19L from 60 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D.
Put side by side, Palestino are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Everton de Vina.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Everton de Vina have posted 1.30 PPG from 30 outings (9W 12D 9L).
On the road, Palestino have gone 11W 8D 11L from 30 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Palestino are on 1.47 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Palestino in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Palestino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Palestino in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Palestino have gone 27W 14D 19L in their last 60 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Palestino away?
Palestino's away record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.30 PPG; Palestino away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Palestino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Palestino in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton de Vina and Palestino runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 13 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Palestino have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Everton de Vina won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton de Vina's record when hosting Palestino specifically: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
3
Palestino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Palestino?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 4, Palestino have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Palestino last play each other?
They last met on 13 June 2026, when Everton de Vina 1-2 Palestino.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Palestino?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 50%, Palestino 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Everton de Vina) and 53% (Palestino).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Palestino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Palestino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 57% of Palestino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Palestino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 53% of Palestino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Palestino tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Palestino in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Palestino defy the odds to beat Everton de Vina 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palestino beat Everton de Vina 1-2 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 15, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.25 xG and Palestino 1.00 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Palestino outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.76 / defence 0.85 against Palestino attack 0.99 / defence 1.07, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 42% | Draw 29% | Palestino 30%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Palestino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 48%, Palestino 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Palestino's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palestino arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.