Everton de Vina 1-2 D. Melipilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Everton de Vina at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton de Vina vs D. Melipilla encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Everton de Vina and D. Melipilla meet at Estadio Sausalito in Primera División, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 August 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Everton de Vina have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's home record at Estadio Sausalito: 3W 2D 2L from 7 Primera División appearances (1.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Sausalito. At home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
D. Melipilla (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for D. Melipilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, D. Melipilla have posted 2W 1D 4L from 7 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Everton de Vina's favour (1.80 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Everton de Vina have seen both teams score in just 14% of their matches, D. Melipilla in only 29%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading Data
Everton de Vina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
D. Melipilla goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 29% versus D. Melipilla 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Everton de Vina 21% | D. Melipilla 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.31 xG and D. Melipilla 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.930 / defence 0.946 | D. Melipilla attack 0.773 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.067 / away 1.111. D. Melipilla bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Everton de Vina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Everton de Vina games / 14 D. Melipilla games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 46% | Draw 32% | D. Melipilla 21%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | D. Melipilla 4.76. Everton de Vina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 14% | D. Melipilla 29% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs D. Melipilla | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 46% | Draw 32% | D. Melipilla 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Everton de Vina 1.31 / D. Melipilla 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.930 / def 0.946 | D. Melipilla attack 0.773 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.067 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
0.81
D. Melipilla xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs D. Melipilla kick off?
Everton de Vina vs D. Melipilla kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs D. Melipilla?
Everton de Vina 1 - 2 D. Melipilla.
Where is Everton de Vina vs D. Melipilla being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs D. Melipilla part of?
Everton de Vina vs D. Melipilla is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs D. Melipilla?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 46% chance of winning, D. Melipilla a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs D. Melipilla?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Everton de Vina and D. Melipilla will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs D. Melipilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and D. Melipilla?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Everton de Vina and D. Melipilla in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. D. Melipilla (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Everton de Vina's attack rating (0.93) and D. Melipilla's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — D. Melipilla's attack (0.77x) against Everton de Vina's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
46%
2.16
32%
3.08
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.12
0.81
D. Melipilla xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
6%
17.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.7 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs D. Melipilla?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and D. Melipilla expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 0.81 for D. Melipilla, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs D. Melipilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 14 outings, Everton de Vina have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 6W 5D 3L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
D. Melipilla's form line: 4W 4D 6L from 14 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-L. The sample for D. Melipilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Everton de Vina are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against D. Melipilla.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Everton de Vina have posted 1.57 PPG from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L).
On the road, D. Melipilla have gone 2W 1D 4L from 7 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton de Vina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; D. Melipilla are on 1.36 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Blended
D. Melipilla
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and D. Melipilla in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 6W 5D 3L in their last 14 games (1.64 PPG), while D. Melipilla have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or D. Melipilla away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.57 PPG; D. Melipilla away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or D. Melipilla been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, D. Melipilla in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Everton de Vina
0
Draws
2
D. Melipilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and D. Melipilla?
From 2 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 0, D. Melipilla have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and D. Melipilla last play each other?
They last met on 27 November 2021, when D. Melipilla 1-0 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and D. Melipilla?
D. Melipilla have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
D. Melipilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 14% (Everton de Vina) and 29% (D. Melipilla) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Everton de Vina and 29% for D. Melipilla.
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 43% of games; D. Melipilla in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / D. Melipilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play D. Melipilla?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 29% of D. Melipilla's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs D. Melipilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 29% of D. Melipilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and D. Melipilla tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, D. Melipilla in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as D. Melipilla defy the odds to beat Everton de Vina 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
D. Melipilla beat Everton de Vina 1-2 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 16, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.31 xG and D. Melipilla 0.81 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. D. Melipilla outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.93 / defence 0.95 against D. Melipilla attack 0.77 / defence 1.32, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 46% | Draw 32% | D. Melipilla 21%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a D. Melipilla win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 21%, D. Melipilla 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
D. Melipilla's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Everton de Vina arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with D. Melipilla winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. D. Melipilla (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.