Everton de Vina 1-1 Antofagasta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Antofagasta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Everton de Vina and Antofagasta meet at Estadio Sausalito in Primera División, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 August 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Everton de Vina (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina at Estadio Sausalito this season: 3W 2D 3L from 8 home games — 1.38 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Sausalito. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Antofagasta's overall Primera División record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Antofagasta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antofagasta's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 2L across 8 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Everton de Vina, 0 for Antofagasta and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2021, ended 2–1 with Everton de Vina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Everton de Vina — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Antofagasta — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 29% versus Antofagasta 71%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Everton de Vina 24% | Antofagasta 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.05 xG and Antofagasta 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.892 / defence 1.055 | Antofagasta attack 0.721 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.082 / away 1.163. Data: 17 Everton de Vina games / 17 Antofagasta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 37% | Draw 36% | Antofagasta 28%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.70 | Draw 2.78 | Antofagasta 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton de Vina are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Everton de Vina 25% | Antofagasta 75%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Antofagasta | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 37% | Draw 36% | Antofagasta 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Everton de Vina 1.05 / Antofagasta 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.892 / def 1.055 | Antofagasta attack 0.721 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.082 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Antofagasta xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Antofagasta kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Antofagasta kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Antofagasta?
Everton de Vina 1 - 1 Antofagasta.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Antofagasta being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Antofagasta part of?
Everton de Vina vs Antofagasta is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Antofagasta?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 37% chance of winning, Antofagasta a 28% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Antofagasta?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Everton de Vina and Antofagasta will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Antofagasta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Antofagasta?
Record (1 meetings): Everton de Vina 1W | Draws 0 | Antofagasta 0W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Antofagasta in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Antofagasta (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Everton de Vina's attack at 0.89x the league average against Antofagasta's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antofagasta's attack (0.72x) against Everton de Vina's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
37%
2.74
36%
2.80
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
1.94
0.89
Antofagasta xG
2.74
37%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
10%
10.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 12.8 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Antofagasta?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Antofagasta expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 0.89 for Antofagasta, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Antofagasta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Everton de Vina come into this having played 17 games, going 6W 5D 6L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Antofagasta sit at 1.53 PPG from 17 outings (7W 5D 5L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Antofagasta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.53 for Antofagasta. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Everton de Vina's home form reads 3W 2D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Antofagasta have taken 1.00 points per game from 8 outings (1W 5D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antofagasta's season.
Attack vs Defence
Everton de Vina are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Antofagasta are on 1.29 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Antofagasta in 71%.
Defensively: Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Blended
Antofagasta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Antofagasta in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 6W 5D 6L in their last 17 games (1.35 PPG), while Antofagasta have gone 7W 5D 5L in their last 17 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Antofagasta away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.38 PPG; Antofagasta away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Antofagasta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Antofagasta in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Everton de Vina won 3-0 on 30 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton de Vina have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Antofagasta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Everton de Vina
2
Draws
0
Antofagasta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Antofagasta?
From 4 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 2, Antofagasta have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Antofagasta last play each other?
They last met on 30 October 2022, when Everton de Vina 3-0 Antofagasta.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Antofagasta?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Antofagasta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 25%, Antofagasta 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Everton de Vina and 25% for Antofagasta.
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Antofagasta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Antofagasta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 75% of Antofagasta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Antofagasta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 25% of Antofagasta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Antofagasta tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Antofagasta in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton de Vina and Antofagasta share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 19, as Everton de Vina and Antofagasta drew 1-1 in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.05 xG and Antofagasta 0.89 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.89 / defence 1.05 against Antofagasta attack 0.72 / defence 1.09, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 37% | Draw 36% | Antofagasta 28%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 24%, Antofagasta 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Antofagasta's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.35 PPG, Antofagasta 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.