Deportes Iquique 2-0 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Deportes Iquique at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Deportes Iquique face Union Espanola.

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Analysis

Union Espanola make the trip to Estadio Tierra de Campeones to face Deportes Iquique in Primera División (matchday 30). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 21:00 UK time.

Current Form

Deportes Iquique's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Deportes Iquique's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Deportes Iquique are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Union Espanola have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Union Espanola's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Deportes Iquique against 1.60 for Union Espanola. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Deportes Iquique, 1 for Union Espanola and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 7.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Jun 2024, ended Deportes Iquique 3–4 Union Espanola — a Union Espanola win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 7.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Deportes Iquique goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Union Espanola goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Deportes Iquique 72% and Union Espanola 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Deportes Iquique 79% | Union Espanola 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Iquique 1.61 xG and Union Espanola 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Iquique attack 1.180 / defence 1.090 | Union Espanola attack 1.154 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.215. Data: built from Deportes Iquique's last 29 games and Union Espanola's last 59.

Result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 40% | Draw 24% | Union Espanola 36%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Iquique 2.51 | Draw 4.22 | Union Espanola 2.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.61 / 1.53) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Deportes Iquique as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Deportes Iquique if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Deportes Iquique's last 10 home games and Union Espanola's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Deportes Iquique 80% (last 10 home games) | Union Espanola 50% (last 10 away games).

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