Deportes Iquique 2-3 U. Catolica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates U. Catolica at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Iquique vs U. Catolica fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees U. Catolica travel to Estadio Tierra de Campeones to take on Deportes Iquique. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 April 2024, 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, U. Catolica stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Primera División this season, U. Catolica have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Iquique 0.91 xG and U. Catolica 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Iquique attack 1.022 / defence 1.048 | U. Catolica attack 0.875 / defence 0.651. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.190. U. Catolica's defence strength of 0.651 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 7 Deportes Iquique games / 37 U. Catolica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 30% | Draw 31% | U. Catolica 39%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Iquique 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | U. Catolica 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, U. Catolica are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on U. Catolica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Iquique vs U. Catolica | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estadio Tierra de Campeones • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Apr 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 30% | Draw 31% | U. Catolica 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Deportes Iquique 0.91 / U. Catolica 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Iquique attack 1.022 / def 1.048 | U. Catolica attack 0.875 / def 0.651 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Deportes Iquique xG
Expected Goals
1.09
U. Catolica xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Iquique vs U. Catolica kick off?
Deportes Iquique vs U. Catolica kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What was the final score in Deportes Iquique vs U. Catolica?
Deportes Iquique 2 - 3 U. Catolica.
Where is Deportes Iquique vs U. Catolica being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What competition is Deportes Iquique vs U. Catolica part of?
Deportes Iquique vs U. Catolica is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Iquique vs U. Catolica?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Iquique a 30% chance of winning, U. Catolica a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Iquique vs U. Catolica?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Deportes Iquique and U. Catolica will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Iquique vs U. Catolica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and U. Catolica?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Deportes Iquique and U. Catolica in?
U. Catolica (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. U. Catolica away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Deportes Iquique's attack rating (1.02) and U. Catolica's defence rating (0.65), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, U. Catolica's attack versus Deportes Iquique's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
30%
3.34
31%
3.26
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Deportes Iquique xG
Total xG
2.00
1.09
U. Catolica xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
10%
9.96
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 14.7 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Iquique vs U. Catolica?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Deportes Iquique and U. Catolica expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Deportes Iquique and 1.09 for U. Catolica, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Iquique vs U. Catolica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Iquique
Pre-Season
U. Catolica
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 2 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Deportes Iquique's record when hosting U. Catolica specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Deportes Iquique
2
Draws
2
U. Catolica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and U. Catolica?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Iquique have won 0, U. Catolica have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Iquique and U. Catolica last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2025, when Deportes Iquique 2-2 U. Catolica.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Iquique and U. Catolica?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Iquique home games / U. Catolica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as U. Catolica edge out Deportes Iquique 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
U. Catolica beat Deportes Iquique 2-3 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 8, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 0.91 xG and U. Catolica 1.09 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Deportes Iquique beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. U. Catolica outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 1.02 / defence 1.05 against U. Catolica attack 0.88 / defence 0.65, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 30% | Draw 31% | U. Catolica 39%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.