Deportes Iquique 3-1 Huachipato – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deportes Iquique at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Iquique vs Huachipato fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 24 as Deportes Iquique welcome Huachipato to Estadio Tierra de Campeones. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Deportes Iquique stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Iquique, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Deportes Iquique have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Deportes Iquique are significantly better at Estadio Tierra de Campeones than their overall form suggests.
Huachipato — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Huachipato, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Huachipato's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Deportes Iquique 1.20 PPG, Huachipato 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Deportes Iquique, 1 for Huachipato and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Huachipato winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Deportes Iquique in-play and half-time data (23 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Huachipato in-play and half-time data (23 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Deportes Iquique 83% and Huachipato 39% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deportes Iquique 83% | Huachipato 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Iquique 1.62 xG and Huachipato 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Iquique attack 0.944 / defence 1.282 | Huachipato attack 0.816 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.193. Data: 23 Deportes Iquique games / 52 Huachipato games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 46% | Draw 24% | Huachipato 30%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Iquique 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Huachipato 3.33. Deportes Iquique hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Deportes Iquique at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deportes Iquique offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Deportes Iquique 80% | Huachipato 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Iquique vs Huachipato | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio Tierra de Campeones • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 46% | Draw 24% | Huachipato 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Deportes Iquique 1.62 / Huachipato 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Iquique attack 0.944 / def 1.282 | Huachipato attack 0.816 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Deportes Iquique (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Deportes Iquique xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Huachipato xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Iquique vs Huachipato kick off?
Deportes Iquique vs Huachipato kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What was the final score in Deportes Iquique vs Huachipato?
Deportes Iquique 3 - 1 Huachipato.
Where is Deportes Iquique vs Huachipato being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What competition is Deportes Iquique vs Huachipato part of?
Deportes Iquique vs Huachipato is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Iquique vs Huachipato?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Iquique a 46% chance of winning, Huachipato a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Deportes Iquique the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Iquique vs Huachipato?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Deportes Iquique and Huachipato will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Iquique vs Huachipato have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Huachipato?
Record (1 meetings): Deportes Iquique 0W | Draws 0 | Huachipato 1W.
What form are Deportes Iquique and Huachipato in?
Deportes Iquique (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Huachipato (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Deportes Iquique's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Huachipato's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Huachipato's attack versus Deportes Iquique's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportes Iquique Win
46%
2.18
24%
4.08
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Deportes Iquique xG
Total xG
2.87
1.25
Huachipato xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
6%
17.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Iquique vs Huachipato?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Deportes Iquique and Huachipato expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Deportes Iquique and 1.25 for Huachipato, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Iquique vs Huachipato?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Deportes Iquique come into this having played 23 games, going 10W 6D 7L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Deportes Iquique is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Huachipato sit at 1.22 PPG from 23 outings (7W 7D 9L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Huachipato is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Deportes Iquique on 1.57 PPG, Huachipato on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Deportes Iquique's home form reads 6W 1D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Huachipato have taken 0.80 points per game from 10 outings (2W 2D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Huachipato's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deportes Iquique come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Deportes Iquique are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Huachipato are on 0.87 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deportes Iquique have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Iquique
Blended
Huachipato
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deportes Iquique and Huachipato in coming into this match?
Deportes Iquique have gone 10W 6D 7L in their last 23 games (1.57 PPG), while Huachipato have gone 7W 7D 9L in their last 23 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deportes Iquique at home or Huachipato away?
Deportes Iquique's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deportes Iquique at home: 1.90 PPG; Huachipato away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Deportes Iquique or Huachipato been keeping clean sheets recently?
Deportes Iquique have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Huachipato in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Deportes Iquique and Huachipato runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2025, when Deportes Iquique won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Deportes Iquique's record when hosting Huachipato specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Deportes Iquique
1
Draws
1
Huachipato
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Huachipato?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Iquique have won 2, Huachipato have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Iquique and Huachipato last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Huachipato 1-1 Deportes Iquique.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Iquique and Huachipato?
Deportes Iquique have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Deportes Iquique are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Huachipato are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deportes Iquique 80%, Huachipato 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Deportes Iquique and 50% for Huachipato. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Huachipato in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Iquique home games / Huachipato away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deportes Iquique play Huachipato?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Deportes Iquique's games and 40% of Huachipato's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Deportes Iquique vs Huachipato usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Deportes Iquique's matches and 50% of Huachipato's.
Do Deportes Iquique and Huachipato tend to score early?
Deportes Iquique have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Huachipato in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Deportes Iquique cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Huachipato.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Iquique beat Huachipato 3-1 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 24, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 1.62 xG and Huachipato 1.25 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Deportes Iquique beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 0.94 / defence 1.28 against Huachipato attack 0.82 / defence 1.15, drawn from 23/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 46% | Draw 24% | Huachipato 30%, with Deportes Iquique to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Iquique 83%, Huachipato 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deportes Iquique's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Huachipato's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Deportes Iquique 1.57 PPG, Huachipato 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Deportes Iquique win broke the near-deadlock. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm. Huachipato (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.