Deportes Copiapo 1-3 Palestino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palestino at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Deportes Copiapo host Palestino at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla in Primera División, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 February 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Primera División games this season, Palestino have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Palestino's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Copiapo 1.19 xG and Palestino 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Copiapo attack 0.900 / defence 1.571 | Palestino attack 0.972 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.137. Data: 3 Deportes Copiapo games / 33 Palestino games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 26% | Draw 24% | Palestino 50%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Copiapo 3.85 | Draw 4.17 | Palestino 2.00. Palestino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palestino at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palestino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 26% | Draw 24% | Palestino 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Deportes Copiapo 1.19 / Palestino 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Copiapo attack 0.900 / def 1.571 | Palestino attack 0.972 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Palestino (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Deportes Copiapo xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Palestino xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino kick off?
Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What was the final score in Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino?
Deportes Copiapo 1 - 3 Palestino.
Where is Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What competition is Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino part of?
Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Copiapo a 26% chance of winning, Palestino a 50% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Palestino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Deportes Copiapo and Palestino will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and Palestino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Deportes Copiapo and Palestino in?
Palestino (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Palestino away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Deportes Copiapo's attack rating (0.90) and Palestino's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Palestino's attack versus Deportes Copiapo's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palestino Win
26%
3.83
24%
4.23
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Deportes Copiapo xG
Total xG
2.92
1.74
Palestino xG
3.83
26%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
18%
5.67
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
5%
21.69
15%
6.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.3 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Deportes Copiapo and Palestino expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Deportes Copiapo and 1.74 for Palestino, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Copiapo
Pre-Season
Palestino
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Deportes Copiapo's record when hosting Palestino specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Deportes Copiapo
0
Draws
3
Palestino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and Palestino?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Copiapo have won 1, Palestino have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Copiapo and Palestino last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2024, when Deportes Copiapo 2-1 Palestino.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Copiapo and Palestino?
Palestino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Copiapo home games / Palestino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Palestino cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Deportes Copiapo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palestino beat Deportes Copiapo 1-3 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla, Regular Season - 4, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Copiapo 1.19 xG and Palestino 1.74 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Palestino outscored their 1.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Copiapo attack 0.90 / defence 1.57 against Palestino attack 0.97 / defence 0.86, drawn from 3/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Copiapo 26% | Draw 24% | Palestino 50%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.