Deportes Copiapo 3-0 Deportes Iquique – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deportes Iquique at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Deportes Copiapo face Deportes Iquique.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Deportes Iquique make the trip to Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla to face Deportes Copiapo in Primera División (matchday 7). The match kicks off on Saturday 6 April 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Deportes Copiapo have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Deportes Copiapo's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Copiapo 1.48 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Copiapo attack 1.108 / defence 1.099 | Deportes Iquique attack 1.379 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.252. Deportes Iquique have an above-average attack rating of 1.379, which lifts their away xG to 1.90. Data: built from Deportes Copiapo's last 36 games and Deportes Iquique's last 6.
Result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 30% | Draw 22% | Deportes Iquique 48%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Copiapo 3.30 | Draw 4.50 | Deportes Iquique 2.11. Deportes Iquique hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.48 / 1.90) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Deportes Iquique are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Deportes Iquique if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Copiapo vs Deportes Iquique | Competition: Primera División, matchday 7 | Venue: Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 30% | Draw 22% | Deportes Iquique 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Deportes Copiapo 1.48 / Deportes Iquique 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Copiapo attack 1.108 / def 1.099 | Deportes Iquique attack 1.379 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Deportes Iquique (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Deportes Copiapo xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Deportes Iquique xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Deportes Copiapo vs Deportes Iquique FAQs
What time does Deportes Copiapo vs Deportes Iquique kick off?
Deportes Copiapo vs Deportes Iquique kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What was the final score in Deportes Copiapo vs Deportes Iquique?
Deportes Copiapo 3 - 0 Deportes Iquique.
Where is Deportes Copiapo vs Deportes Iquique being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What competition is Deportes Copiapo vs Deportes Iquique part of?
Deportes Copiapo vs Deportes Iquique is a Primera División fixture (matchday 7) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Copiapo vs Deportes Iquique?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Copiapo a 30% chance of winning, Deportes Iquique a 48% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Deportes Iquique the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Copiapo vs Deportes Iquique?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Deportes Copiapo and Deportes Iquique will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Deportes Copiapo vs Deportes Iquique have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Deportes Copiapo's attack at 1.11x the league average against Deportes Iquique's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Deportes Iquique's attack (1.38x) against Deportes Copiapo's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.90.
These ratings are built from Deportes Copiapo's last 36 games and Deportes Iquique's last 6 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportes Iquique Win
30%
3.30
22%
4.50
48%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Deportes Copiapo xG
Total xG
3.38
1.90
Deportes Iquique xG
3.30
30%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
2.11
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
15%
6.67
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
5%
22.04
11%
9.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Deportes Copiapo vs Deportes Iquique Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Copiapo vs Deportes Iquique?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Deportes Copiapo and Deportes Iquique expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Deportes Copiapo and 1.90 for Deportes Iquique, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Copiapo vs Deportes Iquique?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Copiapo
Pre-Season
Deportes Iquique
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Deportes Copiapo (Home) vs Deportes Iquique (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Deportes Copiapo
Pre-Season
Deportes Iquique
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent in our data was on 28 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Deportes Copiapo
0
Draws
1
Deportes Iquique
Recent Meetings
❓ Deportes Copiapo vs Deportes Iquique H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and Deportes Iquique?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Deportes Copiapo have won 1, Deportes Iquique have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Copiapo and Deportes Iquique last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 August 2024: Deportes Iquique 2-1 Deportes Copiapo.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Copiapo home games / Deportes Iquique away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Deportes Copiapo run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Deportes Iquique.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Copiapo beat Deportes Iquique 3-0 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla, Regular Season - 7, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Copiapo 1.48 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.90 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Deportes Copiapo beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Deportes Iquique landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Copiapo attack 1.11 / defence 1.10 against Deportes Iquique attack 1.38 / defence 1.06, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Copiapo 30% | Draw 22% | Deportes Iquique 48%, with Deportes Iquique to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Deportes Copiapo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.