Deportes Copiapo 1-0 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Coquimbo Unido travel to Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla to take on Deportes Copiapo. The game is scheduled for Monday 1 May 2023, 01:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Copiapo 1.15 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Copiapo attack 0.836 / defence 1.278 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.027 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.265. Data: 11 Deportes Copiapo games / 41 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 25% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 48%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Copiapo 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | Coquimbo Unido 2.08. Coquimbo Unido hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla • Kick-off: Monday 1 May 2023, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 25% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Deportes Copiapo 1.15 / Coquimbo Unido 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Copiapo attack 0.836 / def 1.278 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.027 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Deportes Copiapo xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Coquimbo Unido xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 01:30 on Monday 1 May 2023 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What was the final score in Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Deportes Copiapo 1 - 0 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What competition is Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Copiapo a 25% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Deportes Copiapo and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and Coquimbo Unido?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Deportes Copiapo and Coquimbo Unido in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Coquimbo Unido away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Deportes Copiapo's attack rating (0.84) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Deportes Copiapo's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
25%
3.94
26%
3.81
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Deportes Copiapo xG
Total xG
2.81
1.66
Coquimbo Unido xG
3.94
25%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
19%
5.26
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
5%
20.75
15%
6.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Deportes Copiapo and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Deportes Copiapo and 1.66 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Copiapo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Copiapo
Pre-Season
Coquimbo Unido
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jul 2024, when Deportes Copiapo won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Deportes Copiapo's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Deportes Copiapo
0
Draws
2
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and Coquimbo Unido?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Copiapo have won 2, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Copiapo and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2024, when Deportes Copiapo 3-0 Coquimbo Unido.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Copiapo home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Deportes Copiapo defy the odds to beat Coquimbo Unido 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Copiapo beat Coquimbo Unido 1-0 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla, Regular Season - 12, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Copiapo 1.15 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.66 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Coquimbo Unido landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Copiapo attack 0.84 / defence 1.28 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.03 / defence 0.97, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Copiapo 25% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 48%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Deportes Copiapo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.