D. La Serena 1-0 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates D. La Serena at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Everton de Vina make the trip to La Portada to face D. La Serena in Primera División, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
D. La Serena (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
D. La Serena's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at La Portada this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Everton de Vina have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Everton de Vina's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for D. La Serena, 4 for Everton de Vina and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with Everton de Vina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
D. La Serena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — D. La Serena 70% versus Everton de Vina 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (D. La Serena 57% | Everton de Vina 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects D. La Serena 1.27 xG and Everton de Vina 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: D. La Serena attack 0.897 / defence 1.037 | Everton de Vina attack 1.052 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.086. Data: 38 D. La Serena games / 38 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: D. La Serena 39% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 34%. Fair-value odds: D. La Serena 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Everton de Vina 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates D. La Serena as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on D. La Serena if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: D. La Serena 60% | Everton de Vina 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: La Portada • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: D. La Serena 39% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG D. La Serena 1.27 / Everton de Vina 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: D. La Serena attack 0.897 / def 1.037 | Everton de Vina attack 1.052 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.609 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: D. La Serena (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
D. La Serena xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Everton de Vina xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina kick off?
D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at La Portada.
What was the final score in D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina?
D. La Serena 1 - 0 Everton de Vina.
Where is D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at La Portada.
What competition is D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina part of?
D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives D. La Serena a 39% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making D. La Serena the favourite.
Will both teams score in D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both D. La Serena and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between D. La Serena and Everton de Vina?
Record (6 meetings): D. La Serena 2W | Draws 0 | Everton de Vina 4W.
What form are D. La Serena and Everton de Vina in?
D. La Serena (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Everton de Vina (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from D. La Serena's attack rating (0.90) and Everton de Vina's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Everton de Vina's attack (1.05x) against D. La Serena's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
D. La Serena Win
39%
2.60
27%
3.67
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
D. La Serena xG
Total xG
2.46
1.18
Everton de Vina xG
2.60
39%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
12%
8.48
10%
10.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are D. La Serena and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for D. La Serena and 1.18 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, D. La Serena have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 7W 6D 17L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Everton de Vina's form line: 6W 8D 16L from 30 games, 0.87 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.90 PPG for D. La Serena against 0.87 for Everton de Vina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, D. La Serena have posted 1.27 PPG from 15 outings (5W 4D 6L).
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 3W 1D 11L from 15 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, D. La Serena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
D. La Serena are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 0.90 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: D. La Serena have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
D. La Serena
Current Season
Everton de Vina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are D. La Serena and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
D. La Serena have gone 7W 6D 17L in their last 30 games (0.90 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 6W 8D 16L in their last 30 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — D. La Serena at home or Everton de Vina away?
D. La Serena's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — D. La Serena at home: 1.27 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: D. La Serena won 0-4 on 1 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, D. La Serena have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Everton de Vina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
D. La Serena
0
Draws
4
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between D. La Serena and Everton de Vina?
From 7 meetings on record, D. La Serena have won 3, Everton de Vina have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did D. La Serena and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when D. La Serena 1-0 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between D. La Serena and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
D. La Serena see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — D. La Serena 60%, Everton de Vina 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (D. La Serena) and 53% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: D. La Serena have failed to score in 27% of games; Everton de Vina in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = D. La Serena home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when D. La Serena play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of D. La Serena's recent matches and 40% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of D. La Serena's recent games and 53% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do D. La Serena and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
D. La Serena have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as D. La Serena edge out Everton de Vina 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
D. La Serena beat Everton de Vina 1-0 at La Portada, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting D. La Serena 1.27 xG and Everton de Vina 1.18 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Everton de Vina landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of D. La Serena attack 0.90 / defence 1.04 against Everton de Vina attack 1.05 / defence 0.88, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it D. La Serena 39% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 34%, with D. La Serena to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (D. La Serena 57%, Everton de Vina 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
D. La Serena's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — D. La Serena 0.90 PPG, Everton de Vina 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the D. La Serena win broke the near-deadlock. D. La Serena (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.