Coquimbo Unido 1-3 Nublense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Nublense at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 25 as Coquimbo Unido welcome Nublense to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 September 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Coquimbo Unido have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coquimbo Unido's home record at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Primera División appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Coquimbo Unido are significantly better at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso than their overall form suggests.
Nublense — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nublense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nublense have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Coquimbo Unido) versus 1.30 (Nublense). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Coquimbo Unido register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Nublense in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Coquimbo Unido, 2 for Nublense and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2023, ended 3–1 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Coquimbo Unido in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Nublense in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Coquimbo Unido 61% and Nublense 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 52% | Nublense 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.27 xG and Nublense 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.009 / defence 0.985 | Nublense attack 1.101 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.213. Data: 54 Coquimbo Unido games / 54 Nublense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 35% | Draw 27% | Nublense 37%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Nublense 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nublense as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nublense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Coquimbo Unido 70% | Nublense 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 35% | Draw 27% | Nublense 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.27 / Nublense 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.009 / def 0.985 | Nublense attack 1.101 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Nublense (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Nublense xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense?
Coquimbo Unido 1 - 3 Nublense.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 35% chance of winning, Nublense a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nublense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Nublense will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Nublense?
Record (3 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 1W | Draws 0 | Nublense 2W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Nublense in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Nublense (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Coquimbo Unido's attack at 1.01x the league average against Nublense's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nublense's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nublense Win
35%
2.82
27%
3.69
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.59
1.32
Nublense xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
10%
10.52
10%
9.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.6 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Nublense expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.32 for Nublense, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Coquimbo Unido come into this having played 54 games, going 18W 11D 25L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-W. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nublense sit at 1.52 PPG from 54 outings (22W 16D 16L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Nublense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Coquimbo Unido on 1.20 PPG, Nublense on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Coquimbo Unido's home form reads 12W 5D 9L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Nublense have taken 1.38 points per game from 26 outings (9W 9D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Nublense are on 1.35 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Nublense in 63%.
Last 54 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Nublense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Nublense in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 18W 11D 25L in their last 54 games (1.20 PPG), while Nublense have gone 22W 16D 16L in their last 54 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Nublense away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 1.58 PPG; Nublense away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting Nublense specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Coquimbo Unido
3
Draws
3
Nublense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Nublense?
From 9 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 3, Nublense have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Nublense last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 1-1 Nublense.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 65%, Nublense 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Coquimbo Unido) and 38% (Nublense).
On the defensive side: Nublense in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Nublense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Nublense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Coquimbo Unido's games and 54% of Nublense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Coquimbo Unido's recent games and 38% of Nublense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coquimbo Unido and Nublense tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Nublense in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nublense cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Coquimbo Unido.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nublense beat Coquimbo Unido 1-3 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 25, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.27 xG and Nublense 1.32 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Nublense outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.01 / defence 0.98 against Nublense attack 1.10 / defence 0.87, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 35% | Draw 27% | Nublense 37%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 52%, Nublense 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Nublense's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coquimbo Unido 1.20 PPG, Nublense 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nublense win broke the near-deadlock. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nublense (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.