Coquimbo Unido 1-0 Magallanes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coquimbo Unido vs Magallanes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Coquimbo Unido and Magallanes meet at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Primera División, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 May 2023 at 01:30 UTC.
Current Form
Coquimbo Unido's overall Primera División record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Coquimbo Unido have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 2.08 xG and Magallanes 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.161 / defence 0.936 | Magallanes attack 0.849 / defence 1.341. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.233. Magallanes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.341 — this is suppressing Coquimbo Unido's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Coquimbo Unido games / 13 Magallanes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 63% | Draw 20% | Magallanes 17%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Magallanes 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Coquimbo Unido (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Magallanes | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Saturday 20 May 2023, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 63% | Draw 20% | Magallanes 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 55% | xG Coquimbo Unido 2.08 / Magallanes 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.161 / def 0.936 | Magallanes attack 0.849 / def 1.341 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Magallanes xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Magallanes kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Magallanes kicked off at 01:30 on Saturday 20 May 2023 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Magallanes?
Coquimbo Unido 1 - 0 Magallanes.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Magallanes being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Magallanes part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Magallanes is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Magallanes?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 63% chance of winning, Magallanes a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Magallanes?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Magallanes will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Magallanes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Magallanes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Magallanes in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Coquimbo Unido home split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Coquimbo Unido's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Magallanes's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. Flip it around — Magallanes's attack (0.85x) against Coquimbo Unido's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 44/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
63%
1.60
20%
4.91
17%
5.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
3.06
0.98
Magallanes xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.91
20%
Draw
5.91
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
13%
8.00
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
2%
47.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Magallanes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Magallanes expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 0.98 for Magallanes, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Magallanes?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Pre-Season
Magallanes
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 December 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Coquimbo Unido
0
Draws
0
Magallanes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Magallanes?
From 2 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, Magallanes have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Magallanes last play each other?
They last met on 9 December 2023, when Magallanes 2-3 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Magallanes?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Magallanes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out Magallanes 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Magallanes 1-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 15, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 2.08 xG and Magallanes 0.98 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Coquimbo Unido fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Magallanes landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.16 / defence 0.94 against Magallanes attack 0.85 / defence 1.34, drawn from 44/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 63% | Draw 20% | Magallanes 17%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.