Coquimbo Unido 1-1 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Everton de Vina travel to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso to take on Coquimbo Unido. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 July 2022, 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coquimbo Unido's home record at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso: 3W 1D 4L from 8 Primera División appearances (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Coquimbo Unido are significantly better at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have recorded 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Everton de Vina have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Everton de Vina's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Coquimbo Unido's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Coquimbo Unido register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant matches, Everton de Vina in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Coquimbo Unido, 1 for Everton de Vina and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2022, ended 0–2 with Everton de Vina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Coquimbo Unido in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 62% versus Everton de Vina 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 62% | Everton de Vina 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.34 xG and Everton de Vina 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.018 / defence 1.531 | Everton de Vina attack 1.090 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 0.987. Data: 16 Coquimbo Unido games / 48 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 30% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 44%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Everton de Vina 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Coquimbo Unido 75% | Everton de Vina 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Jul 2022, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 30% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.34 / Everton de Vina 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.018 / def 1.531 | Everton de Vina attack 1.090 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.447 / away 0.987 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Everton de Vina xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 10 July 2022 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Coquimbo Unido 1 - 1 Everton de Vina.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 30% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina?
Record (1 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 0W | Draws 0 | Everton de Vina 1W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Everton de Vina (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Coquimbo Unido's attack at 1.02x the league average against Everton de Vina's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
30%
3.29
26%
3.87
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.99
1.65
Everton de Vina xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
19%
5.19
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
6%
17.07
11%
8.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.65 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Coquimbo Unido's recent record stands at 3W 3D 10L from 16 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton de Vina, meanwhile, have gone 4W 9D 3L across 16 games — 1.31 PPG, with D-W-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Everton de Vina by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Coquimbo Unido heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Coquimbo Unido have managed 3W 1D 4L from 8 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.75 PPG overall — Coquimbo Unido are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Everton de Vina's away record stands at 2W 4D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 0.94 scored and 0.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Everton de Vina in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 3W 3D 10L in their last 16 games (0.75 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 4W 9D 3L in their last 16 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Everton de Vina away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 1.25 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Coquimbo Unido or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 22 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Coquimbo Unido
4
Draws
3
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina?
From 9 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, Everton de Vina have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Everton de Vina 1-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Coquimbo Unido at 75%, Everton de Vina at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Coquimbo Unido) and 38% (Everton de Vina). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Everton de Vina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Coquimbo Unido's games and 62% of Everton de Vina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Coquimbo Unido's matches and 38% of Everton de Vina's.
Do Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 17, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.34 xG and Everton de Vina 1.65 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.02 / defence 1.53 against Everton de Vina attack 1.09 / defence 0.91, drawn from 16/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 30% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 44%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 62%, Everton de Vina 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Everton de Vina arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.