Colo Colo 4-1 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Colo Colo (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Colo Colo face Everton de Vina.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Monumental David Arellano plays host to Colo Colo versus Everton de Vina in Primera División, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 21:00 UTC.
Form
Colo Colo (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Colo Colo's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Estadio Monumental David Arellano this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Everton de Vina's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Colo Colo's favour (2.00 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Colo Colo, 0 for Everton de Vina and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with Colo Colo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Colo Colo half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Everton de Vina half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colo Colo 48% versus Everton de Vina 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colo Colo 40% | Everton de Vina 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colo Colo 1.38 xG and Everton de Vina 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colo Colo attack 1.043 / defence 0.816 | Everton de Vina attack 1.219 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.222. Everton de Vina have an above-average attack strength of 1.219 — the away xG of 1.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 Colo Colo games / 35 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colo Colo 41% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 33%. Fair-value odds: Colo Colo 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Everton de Vina 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Colo Colo at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Colo Colo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Colo Colo 50% | Everton de Vina 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio Monumental David Arellano • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colo Colo 41% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Colo Colo 1.38 / Everton de Vina 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Colo Colo attack 1.043 / def 0.816 | Everton de Vina attack 1.219 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Colo Colo xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Everton de Vina xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What was the final score in Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina?
Colo Colo 4 - 1 Everton de Vina.
Where is Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What competition is Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina part of?
Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Colo Colo a 41% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Colo Colo and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Everton de Vina?
Record (4 meetings): Colo Colo 2W | Draws 2 | Everton de Vina 0W.
What form are Colo Colo and Everton de Vina in?
Colo Colo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Everton de Vina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Colo Colo's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Everton de Vina's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Everton de Vina's attack (1.22x) against Colo Colo's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
41%
2.46
26%
3.80
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Colo Colo xG
Total xG
2.59
1.22
Everton de Vina xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
12%
8.31
8%
11.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Colo Colo and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Colo Colo and 1.22 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Colo Colo's recent record stands at 33W 18D 9L from 60 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Everton de Vina, meanwhile, have gone 22W 21D 17L across 60 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Colo Colo by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Everton de Vina heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Colo Colo have managed 20W 7D 3L from 30 games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Everton de Vina's away record stands at 11W 10D 9L across 30 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Colo Colo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Colo Colo are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.37 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colo Colo
Current Season
Everton de Vina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colo Colo and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Colo Colo have gone 33W 18D 9L in their last 60 games (1.95 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 22W 21D 17L in their last 60 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colo Colo at home or Everton de Vina away?
Colo Colo's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colo Colo at home: 2.23 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Colo Colo or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Colo Colo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colo Colo won 4-1 on 30 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Colo Colo have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Everton de Vina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Colo Colo
3
Draws
0
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, Colo Colo have won 7, Everton de Vina have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Colo Colo and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Everton de Vina 3-4 Colo Colo.
Who has won more matches between Colo Colo and Everton de Vina?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Colo Colo see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colo Colo 37%, Everton de Vina 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Colo Colo) and 37% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: Colo Colo keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colo Colo home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colo Colo play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Colo Colo's recent matches and 57% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Colo Colo's recent games and 37% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colo Colo and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Colo Colo have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Colo Colo run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Everton de Vina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Everton de Vina 4-1 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 6, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 1.38 xG and Everton de Vina 1.22 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Colo Colo beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.04 / defence 0.82 against Everton de Vina attack 1.22 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 41% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 33%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 40%, Everton de Vina 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colo Colo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.45. Form held, and they took the win. Colo Colo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.