Colo Colo 3-1 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Colo Colo at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Colo Colo host Coquimbo Unido at Estadio Monumental David Arellano in Primera División, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 May 2026 at 21:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Colo Colo — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Colo Colo's home record at Estadio Monumental David Arellano: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primera División appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Primera División matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Coquimbo Unido away from home this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 away games — 2.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Coquimbo Unido's 2.80 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Colo Colo's 1.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Colo Colo, 2 for Coquimbo Unido and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Colo Colo trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Coquimbo Unido trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colo Colo 47% versus Coquimbo Unido 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colo Colo 52% | Coquimbo Unido 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colo Colo 1.11 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colo Colo attack 0.881 / defence 0.846 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.156 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.118. Data: 40 Colo Colo games / 40 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colo Colo 36% | Draw 29% | Coquimbo Unido 35%. Fair-value odds: Colo Colo 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Coquimbo Unido 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Colo Colo dominate the H2H record, yet Coquimbo Unido are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Colo Colo are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Coquimbo Unido (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Colo Colo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Colo Colo 70% | Coquimbo Unido 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio Monumental David Arellano • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colo Colo 36% | Draw 29% | Coquimbo Unido 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Colo Colo 1.11 / Coquimbo Unido 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Colo Colo attack 0.881 / def 0.846 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.156 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Colo Colo xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Coquimbo Unido xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What was the final score in Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Colo Colo 3 - 1 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What competition is Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Colo Colo a 36% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (8 meetings): Colo Colo 4W | Draws 2 | Coquimbo Unido 2W.
What form are Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido in?
Colo Colo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Colo Colo's attack rating (0.88) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Colo Colo's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
36%
2.80
29%
3.43
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Colo Colo xG
Total xG
2.20
1.09
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
12%
8.35
12%
8.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Colo Colo and 1.09 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Colo Colo come into this having played 60 games, going 33W 12D 15L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Coquimbo Unido sit at 2.00 PPG from 60 outings (35W 15D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Colo Colo on 1.85 PPG, Coquimbo Unido on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Colo Colo's home form reads 20W 4D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Coquimbo Unido have taken 1.80 points per game from 30 outings (16W 6D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Colo Colo are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.43 scored and 0.85 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Coquimbo Unido in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colo Colo
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Colo Colo have gone 33W 12D 15L in their last 60 games (1.85 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 35W 15D 10L in their last 60 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colo Colo at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Colo Colo's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colo Colo at home: 2.13 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Colo Colo or Coquimbo Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Coquimbo Unido in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2022, when Colo Colo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Colo Colo's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Colo Colo
2
Draws
2
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, Colo Colo have won 5, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Colo Colo 3-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Colo Colo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colo Colo 50%, Coquimbo Unido 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Colo Colo) and 43% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Colo Colo keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Coquimbo Unido in 37%; Coquimbo Unido in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colo Colo home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colo Colo play Coquimbo Unido?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Colo Colo's recent matches and 43% of Coquimbo Unido's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Colo Colo's recent games and 43% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Colo Colo have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Colo Colo cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Coquimbo Unido.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Coquimbo Unido 3-1 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 1.11 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.09 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Colo Colo beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 0.88 / defence 0.85 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.16 / defence 0.82, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 36% | Draw 29% | Coquimbo Unido 35%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 52%, Coquimbo Unido 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colo Colo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Colo Colo 1.85 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Colo Colo win broke the near-deadlock. Colo Colo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.