Cobresal 3-1 Palestino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cobresal at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobresal vs Palestino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Palestino travel to Estadio El Cobre to take on Cobresal. The game is scheduled for Monday 9 August 2021, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cobresal — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cobresal have posted 3W 1D 2L at Estadio El Cobre — 1.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palestino stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Palestino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Palestino have posted 2W 0D 4L from 6 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cobresal at 1.20 PPG versus Palestino's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Cobresal trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Palestino trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 54% versus Palestino 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 46% | Palestino 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.35 xG and Palestino 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 0.902 / defence 1.059 | Palestino attack 1.006 / defence 1.400. League average goals — home 1.071 / away 1.119. Palestino bring a strong defensive rating of 1.400 — this is suppressing Cobresal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Cobresal games / 13 Palestino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 37% | Draw 33% | Palestino 30%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Palestino 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cobresal are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cobresal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Cobresal 50% | Palestino 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Palestino | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Monday 9 Aug 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 37% | Draw 33% | Palestino 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG Cobresal 1.35 / Palestino 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 0.902 / def 1.059 | Palestino attack 1.006 / def 1.400 | league avg home 1.071 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Palestino xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Palestino kick off?
Cobresal vs Palestino kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 9 August 2021 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Palestino?
Cobresal 3 - 1 Palestino.
Where is Cobresal vs Palestino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Palestino part of?
Cobresal vs Palestino is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Palestino?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 37% chance of winning, Palestino a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Palestino?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Cobresal and Palestino will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Palestino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Palestino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cobresal and Palestino in?
Cobresal (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Palestino (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cobresal's attack rating (0.90) and Palestino's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Palestino's attack versus Cobresal's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
37%
2.67
33%
3.07
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.54
1.19
Palestino xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
8%
12.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Palestino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Palestino expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.19 for Palestino, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Palestino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, Cobresal have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 3W 4D 6L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palestino's form line: 5W 2D 6L from 13 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Palestino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cobresal on 1.00 PPG, Palestino on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cobresal have posted 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Cobresal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Palestino have gone 2W 0D 4L from 6 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobresal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cobresal are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Palestino are on 1.38 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Blended
Palestino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and Palestino in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 3W 4D 6L in their last 13 games (1.00 PPG), while Palestino have gone 5W 2D 6L in their last 13 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Palestino away?
Cobresal's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 1.67 PPG; Palestino away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Cobresal or Palestino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cobresal have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Palestino in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Apr 2023, when Cobresal won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cobresal's record when hosting Palestino specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cobresal
0
Draws
6
Palestino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Palestino?
From 10 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 4, Palestino have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Palestino last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Palestino 4-2 Cobresal.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and Palestino?
Palestino have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 50%, Palestino 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Cobresal) and 67% (Palestino).
On the defensive side: Cobresal keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Palestino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play Palestino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Cobresal's games and 67% of Palestino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cobresal vs Palestino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cobresal's recent games and 67% of Palestino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cobresal and Palestino tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Palestino in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cobresal cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Palestino.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat Palestino 3-1 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 15, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.35 xG and Palestino 1.19 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cobresal beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 0.90 / defence 1.06 against Palestino attack 1.01 / defence 1.40, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 37% | Draw 33% | Palestino 30%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 46%, Palestino 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Palestino's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.00 PPG, Palestino 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cobresal win broke the near-deadlock. Cobresal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Palestino (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.