Cobreloa 4-1 Deportes Copiapo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cobreloa at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobreloa vs Deportes Copiapo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 27 as Cobreloa welcome Deportes Copiapo to Estadio Zorros del Desierto. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 8 October 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cobreloa stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Cobreloa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cobreloa at Estadio Zorros del Desierto this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all Primera División games this season, Deportes Copiapo have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Copiapo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Deportes Copiapo have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Cobreloa) versus 0.80 (Deportes Copiapo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Cobreloa, 1 for Deportes Copiapo and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 0–4 with Deportes Copiapo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Cobreloa in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Deportes Copiapo in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobreloa 38% versus Deportes Copiapo 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobreloa 58% | Deportes Copiapo 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobreloa 1.52 xG and Deportes Copiapo 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobreloa attack 0.769 / defence 1.108 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.949 / defence 1.323. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.092. Cobreloa's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.52 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Deportes Copiapo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.323 — this is suppressing Cobreloa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Cobreloa games / 56 Deportes Copiapo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobreloa 46% | Draw 25% | Deportes Copiapo 29%. Fair-value odds: Cobreloa 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Deportes Copiapo 3.45. Cobreloa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cobreloa as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cobreloa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Cobreloa 40% | Deportes Copiapo 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobreloa vs Deportes Copiapo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio Zorros del Desierto • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Oct 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobreloa 46% | Draw 25% | Deportes Copiapo 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Cobreloa 1.52 / Deportes Copiapo 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Cobreloa attack 0.769 / def 1.108 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.949 / def 1.323 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Cobreloa (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Cobreloa xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Deportes Copiapo xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobreloa vs Deportes Copiapo kick off?
Cobreloa vs Deportes Copiapo kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 8 October 2024 at Estadio Zorros del Desierto.
What was the final score in Cobreloa vs Deportes Copiapo?
Cobreloa 4 - 1 Deportes Copiapo.
Where is Cobreloa vs Deportes Copiapo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Zorros del Desierto.
What competition is Cobreloa vs Deportes Copiapo part of?
Cobreloa vs Deportes Copiapo is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobreloa vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our statistical model gives Cobreloa a 46% chance of winning, Deportes Copiapo a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cobreloa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobreloa vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cobreloa and Deportes Copiapo will score (BTTS).
Will Cobreloa vs Deportes Copiapo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobreloa and Deportes Copiapo?
Record (1 meetings): Cobreloa 0W | Draws 0 | Deportes Copiapo 1W.
What form are Cobreloa and Deportes Copiapo in?
Cobreloa (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Deportes Copiapo (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cobreloa's attack at 0.77x the league average against Deportes Copiapo's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Deportes Copiapo's attack versus Cobreloa's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobreloa Win
46%
2.18
25%
3.93
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Cobreloa xG
Total xG
2.67
1.15
Deportes Copiapo xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
6%
16.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobreloa vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Cobreloa and Deportes Copiapo expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Cobreloa and 1.15 for Deportes Copiapo, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobreloa vs Deportes Copiapo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cobreloa come into this having played 26 games, going 7W 3D 16L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Cobreloa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Deportes Copiapo sit at 0.88 PPG from 26 outings (7W 2D 17L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Deportes Copiapo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cobreloa on 0.92 PPG, Deportes Copiapo on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cobreloa's home form reads 5W 2D 6L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Deportes Copiapo have taken 0.31 points per game from 13 outings (1W 1D 11L). That's a step down from their 0.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Deportes Copiapo's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobreloa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cobreloa are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Deportes Copiapo are on 1.31 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobreloa
Blended
Deportes Copiapo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobreloa and Deportes Copiapo in coming into this match?
Cobreloa have gone 7W 3D 16L in their last 26 games (0.92 PPG), while Deportes Copiapo have gone 7W 2D 17L in their last 26 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobreloa at home or Deportes Copiapo away?
Cobreloa's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobreloa at home: 1.31 PPG; Deportes Copiapo away: 0.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cobreloa
0
Draws
1
Deportes Copiapo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobreloa and Deportes Copiapo?
From 2 meetings on record, Cobreloa have won 1, Deportes Copiapo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cobreloa and Deportes Copiapo last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2024, when Cobreloa 4-1 Deportes Copiapo.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cobreloa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Deportes Copiapo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobreloa 46%, Deportes Copiapo 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Cobreloa) and 62% (Deportes Copiapo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cobreloa have failed to score in 31% of games; Deportes Copiapo in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobreloa home games / Deportes Copiapo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobreloa play Deportes Copiapo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Cobreloa's recent matches and 54% of Deportes Copiapo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cobreloa vs Deportes Copiapo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Cobreloa's matches and 62% of Deportes Copiapo's.
Do Cobreloa and Deportes Copiapo tend to score early?
Cobreloa have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Deportes Copiapo in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cobreloa run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Deportes Copiapo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobreloa beat Deportes Copiapo 4-1 at Estadio Zorros del Desierto, Regular Season - 27, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobreloa 1.52 xG and Deportes Copiapo 1.15 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Cobreloa beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobreloa attack 0.77 / defence 1.11 against Deportes Copiapo attack 0.95 / defence 1.32, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobreloa 46% | Draw 25% | Deportes Copiapo 29%, with Cobreloa to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobreloa 58%, Deportes Copiapo 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobreloa's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Deportes Copiapo's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cobreloa 0.92 PPG, Deportes Copiapo 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cobreloa win broke the near-deadlock. Cobreloa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Deportes Copiapo (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.