Antofagasta 0-1 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antofagasta at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antofagasta vs Cobresal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Antofagasta and Cobresal meet at Estadio Tierra de Campeones in Primera División, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Antofagasta's overall Primera División record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antofagasta have posted 5W 2D 3L at Estadio Tierra de Campeones — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cobresal (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Cobresal's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Antofagasta. A 1.00 PPG lead over Cobresal (1.80 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Antofagasta, 1 for Cobresal and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 0–2 with Cobresal winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Antofagasta — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Cobresal — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antofagasta 56% versus Cobresal 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antofagasta 41% | Cobresal 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antofagasta 1.25 xG and Cobresal 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antofagasta attack 0.945 / defence 0.911 | Cobresal attack 0.930 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.222. Data: 32 Antofagasta games / 32 Cobresal games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Antofagasta 40% | Draw 31% | Cobresal 29%. Fair-value odds: Antofagasta 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Cobresal 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antofagasta at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antofagasta if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Antofagasta 60% | Cobresal 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antofagasta vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio Tierra de Campeones • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antofagasta 40% | Draw 31% | Cobresal 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Antofagasta 1.25 / Cobresal 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Antofagasta attack 0.945 / def 0.911 | Cobresal attack 0.930 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Antofagasta (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Antofagasta xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Cobresal xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antofagasta vs Cobresal kick off?
Antofagasta vs Cobresal kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What was the final score in Antofagasta vs Cobresal?
Antofagasta 0 - 1 Cobresal.
Where is Antofagasta vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What competition is Antofagasta vs Cobresal part of?
Antofagasta vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Antofagasta vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Antofagasta a 40% chance of winning, Cobresal a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Antofagasta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antofagasta vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Antofagasta and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will Antofagasta vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and Cobresal?
Record (2 meetings): Antofagasta 1W | Draws 0 | Cobresal 1W.
What form are Antofagasta and Cobresal in?
Antofagasta (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Cobresal (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Antofagasta's attack at 0.94x the league average against Cobresal's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cobresal's attack (0.93x) against Antofagasta's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antofagasta Win
40%
2.52
31%
3.20
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Antofagasta xG
Total xG
2.29
1.03
Cobresal xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
8%
12.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antofagasta vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Antofagasta and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Antofagasta and 1.03 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Antofagasta vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Antofagasta come into this having played 32 games, going 12W 11D 9L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-W.
On the other side, Cobresal sit at 1.25 PPG from 32 outings (11W 7D 14L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Antofagasta against 1.25 for Cobresal. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Antofagasta's home form reads 9W 2D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Cobresal have taken 0.94 points per game from 16 outings (4W 3D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antofagasta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antofagasta are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.25 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antofagasta
Current Season
Cobresal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antofagasta and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Antofagasta have gone 12W 11D 9L in their last 32 games (1.47 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 11W 7D 14L in their last 32 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antofagasta at home or Cobresal away?
Antofagasta's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antofagasta at home: 1.81 PPG; Cobresal away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Antofagasta or Cobresal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antofagasta have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cobresal in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Cobresal have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antofagasta have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cobresal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Antofagasta
0
Draws
3
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and Cobresal?
From 4 meetings on record, Antofagasta have won 1, Cobresal have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Antofagasta and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2022, when Cobresal 2-1 Antofagasta.
Who has won more matches between Antofagasta and Cobresal?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antofagasta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antofagasta 62%, Cobresal 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Antofagasta) and 56% (Cobresal). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 6% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antofagasta keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Cobresal in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antofagasta home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antofagasta play Cobresal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Antofagasta's games and 56% of Cobresal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antofagasta vs Cobresal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Antofagasta's matches and 56% of Cobresal's.
Do Antofagasta and Cobresal tend to score early?
Antofagasta have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Cobresal in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cobresal defy the odds to beat Antofagasta 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat Antofagasta 0-1 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 1, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antofagasta 1.25 xG and Cobresal 1.03 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Antofagasta fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antofagasta attack 0.94 / defence 0.91 against Cobresal attack 0.93 / defence 0.98, drawn from 32/32 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antofagasta 40% | Draw 31% | Cobresal 29%, with Antofagasta to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Cobresal win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antofagasta 41%, Cobresal 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antofagasta's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cobresal's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antofagasta 1.47 PPG, Cobresal 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cobresal win broke the near-deadlock. Antofagasta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Cobresal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.