Union La Calera 1-2 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar plays host to Union La Calera versus Coquimbo Unido in Primera División, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Union La Calera have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union La Calera have posted 3W 3D 4L at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Coquimbo Unido (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Coquimbo Unido away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Union La Calera register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Coquimbo Unido in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Union La Calera, 2 for Coquimbo Unido and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with Union La Calera winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Union La Calera — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Coquimbo Unido — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union La Calera 60% and Coquimbo Unido 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 50% | Coquimbo Unido 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.05 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.773 / defence 1.116 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.020 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.414. Union La Calera's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Union La Calera games / 42 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 25% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 50%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Coquimbo Unido 2.00. Coquimbo Unido hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Union La Calera 70% | Coquimbo Unido 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 25% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Union La Calera 1.05 / Coquimbo Unido 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.773 / def 1.116 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.020 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Coquimbo Unido xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido?
Union La Calera 1 - 2 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 25% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Union La Calera and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (4 meetings): Union La Calera 2W | Draws 0 | Coquimbo Unido 2W.
What form are Union La Calera and Coquimbo Unido in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Union La Calera's attack rating (0.77) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Coquimbo Unido's attack (1.02x) against Union La Calera's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
25%
4.03
25%
4.02
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
2.66
1.61
Coquimbo Unido xG
4.03
25%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
5%
20.14
18%
5.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 11.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Union La Calera and 1.61 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union La Calera's recent record stands at 19W 23D 18L from 60 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Coquimbo Unido, meanwhile, have gone 22W 11D 27L across 60 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Union La Calera against 1.28 for Coquimbo Unido. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Union La Calera have managed 11W 12D 7L from 30 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Coquimbo Unido's away record stands at 8W 6D 16L across 30 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union La Calera come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union La Calera are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.28 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union La Calera have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Coquimbo Unido in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 19W 23D 18L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 22W 11D 27L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.50 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Coquimbo Unido go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union La Calera have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Union La Calera
1
Draws
6
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 2, Coquimbo Unido have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Union La Calera 1-2 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 60%, Coquimbo Unido 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union La Calera) and 53% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play Coquimbo Unido?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Union La Calera's games and 60% of Coquimbo Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Union La Calera's recent games and 53% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union La Calera and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out Union La Calera 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Union La Calera 1-2 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 14, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.05 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.61 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.77 / defence 1.12 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.02 / defence 0.91, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 25% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 50%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 50%, Coquimbo Unido 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.33 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coquimbo Unido win broke the near-deadlock. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.