Union La Calera 2-1 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union La Calera at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union La Calera vs Cobresal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Cobresal travel to Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar to take on Union La Calera in Primera División (matchday 6). The game is scheduled for Monday 31 March 2025 at 01:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Union La Calera stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Union La Calera's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cobresal — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
On the road, Cobresal have gone 0W 4D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Union La Calera carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Cobresal have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches against 1 for Union La Calera.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2024, ended Union La Calera 3–0 Cobresal — a Union La Calera win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Cobresal have won 5 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Cobresal in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union La Calera 58% and Cobresal 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 48% | Cobresal 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.91 xG and Cobresal 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 1.221 / defence 0.900 | Cobresal attack 0.938 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.108. Data: built from Union La Calera's last 35 games and Cobresal's last 35.
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 59% | Draw 25% | Cobresal 16%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 1.71 | Draw 3.98 | Cobresal 6.16. The model has a clear lean to Union La Calera (59%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union La Calera are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Union La Calera's last 10 home games and Cobresal's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Union La Calera 70% (last 10 home games) | Cobresal 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, matchday 6 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Monday 31 March 2025 at 01:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 59% | Draw 25% | Cobresal 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Union La Calera 1.91 / Cobresal 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 1.221 / def 0.900 | Cobresal attack 0.938 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Cobresal xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union La Calera vs Cobresal FAQs
What time does Union La Calera vs Cobresal kick off?
Union La Calera vs Cobresal kicked off at 01:30 UK time on Monday 31 March 2025 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Union La Calera 2 - 1 Cobresal.
Where is Union La Calera vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Cobresal part of?
Union La Calera vs Cobresal is a Primera División fixture (matchday 6) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 59% chance of winning, Cobresal a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Union La Calera and Cobresal will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union La Calera vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union La Calera's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Cobresal's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. The same calculation in reverse, Cobresal's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Union La Calera's last 35 games and Cobresal's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
59%
1.71
25%
3.98
16%
6.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
2.85
0.94
Cobresal xG
1.71
59%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
6.16
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
15%
6.78
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
2%
41.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.4 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union La Calera vs Cobresal Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Union La Calera and 0.94 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union La Calera come into this having played 60 games, going 19W 18D 23L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Cobresal sit at 1.43 PPG from 60 outings (23W 17D 20L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union La Calera on 1.25 PPG, Cobresal on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Union La Calera's home form reads 10W 7D 13L across their last 30 home games, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Cobresal have taken 0.83 points per game from their last 30 away games (5W 10D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobresal's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union La Calera come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union La Calera are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.60 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cobresal in 62%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Current Season
Cobresal
Current Season
Union La Calera (Home) vs Cobresal (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union La Calera
Current Season
Cobresal
Current Season
❓ Union La Calera vs Cobresal Form FAQs
What form are Union La Calera and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 19W 18D 23L in their last 60 games (1.25 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 23W 17D 20L in their last 60 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Cobresal away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.23 PPG; Cobresal away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cobresal have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Aug 2026, when Cobresal won Cobresal 4-0 Union La Calera.
Union La Calera's record when hosting Cobresal specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Union La Calera
1
Draws
7
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Union La Calera vs Cobresal H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Cobresal?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union La Calera have won 2, Cobresal have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Cobresal last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: Cobresal 4-0 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Cobresal?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union La Calera see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 63%, Cobresal 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Union La Calera and 60% for Cobresal. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union La Calera have failed to score in 30% of games; Cobresal in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union La Calera vs Cobresal Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union La Calera and Cobresal matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Union La Calera's games and 50% of Cobresal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Union La Calera and Cobresal matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Union La Calera's matches and 60% of Cobresal's.
Do Union La Calera and Cobresal matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Union La Calera's recent matches and 63% of Cobresal's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union La Calera edge out Cobresal 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Cobresal 2-1 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 6, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.91 xG and Cobresal 0.94 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 1.22 / defence 0.90 against Cobresal attack 0.94 / defence 1.04, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 59% | Draw 25% | Cobresal 16%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 48%, Cobresal 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.25 PPG, Cobresal 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union La Calera win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.