U. Catolica 2-4 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as U. Catolica face Everton de Vina.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
U. Catolica welcome Everton de Vina to Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK in Primera División (matchday 4). Kick-off is Monday 11 March 2024 at 22:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, U. Catolica have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, U. Catolica have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Everton de Vina — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (U. Catolica) versus 1.40 (Everton de Vina). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, U. Catolica have won 1, Everton de Vina 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 8 Jul 2023, ended U. Catolica 0–1 Everton de Vina — a Everton de Vina win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
U. Catolica trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — U. Catolica 53% versus Everton de Vina 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (U. Catolica 62% | Everton de Vina 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: U. Catolica surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Everton de Vina have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects U. Catolica 1.14 xG and Everton de Vina 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: U. Catolica attack 0.862 / defence 1.011 | Everton de Vina attack 0.947 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.333. Data: built from U. Catolica's last 32 games and Everton de Vina's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: U. Catolica 33% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 40%. Fair-value odds: U. Catolica 3.03 | Draw 3.64 | Everton de Vina 2.53. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton de Vina are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: U. Catolica 60% (last 10 home games) | Everton de Vina 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (U. Catolica 32 games, Everton de Vina 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, matchday 4 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Monday 11 March 2024 at 22:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: U. Catolica 33% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG U. Catolica 1.14 / Everton de Vina 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: U. Catolica attack 0.862 / def 1.011 | Everton de Vina attack 0.947 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
U. Catolica xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Everton de Vina xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina FAQs
What time does U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina kick off?
U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 22:00 UK time on Monday 11 March 2024 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
U. Catolica 2 - 4 Everton de Vina.
Where is U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina part of?
U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina is a Primera División fixture (matchday 4) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives U. Catolica a 33% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both U. Catolica and Everton de Vina will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates U. Catolica's attack at 0.86x the league average against Everton de Vina's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus U. Catolica's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from U. Catolica's last 32 games and Everton de Vina's last 32, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
33%
3.03
27%
3.64
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
U. Catolica xG
Total xG
2.42
1.28
Everton de Vina xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
9%
10.85
13%
7.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.4 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are U. Catolica and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for U. Catolica and 1.28 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
U. Catolica's recent record stands at 24W 15D 21L from 60 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five.
Everton de Vina, meanwhile, have gone 22W 21D 17L across 60 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: U. Catolica on 1.45 PPG, Everton de Vina on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, U. Catolica have managed 13W 9D 8L from their last 30 home games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Everton de Vina's away record stands at 11W 10D 9L across their last 30 away games, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
U. Catolica are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.37 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
U. Catolica
Current Season
Everton de Vina
Current Season
U. Catolica (Home) vs Everton de Vina (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
U. Catolica
Current Season
Everton de Vina
Current Season
❓ U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina Form FAQs
What form are U. Catolica and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
U. Catolica have gone 24W 15D 21L in their last 60 games (1.45 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 22W 21D 17L in their last 60 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — U. Catolica at home or Everton de Vina away?
U. Catolica's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — U. Catolica at home: 1.60 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Apr 2025, when U. Catolica won U. Catolica 6-0 Everton de Vina.
U. Catolica's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
U. Catolica
3
Draws
3
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Everton de Vina?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, U. Catolica have won 4, Everton de Vina have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did U. Catolica and Everton de Vina last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Everton de Vina 0-1 U. Catolica.
Who has won more matches between U. Catolica and Everton de Vina?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — U. Catolica 50%, Everton de Vina 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (U. Catolica) and 37% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: U. Catolica have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = U. Catolica home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in U. Catolica and Everton de Vina matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of U. Catolica's recent matches and 57% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are U. Catolica and Everton de Vina matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of U. Catolica's recent games and 37% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do U. Catolica and Everton de Vina matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of U. Catolica's recent matches and 73% of Everton de Vina's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton de Vina cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over U. Catolica.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat U. Catolica 2-4 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 4, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.14 xG and Everton de Vina 1.28 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. U. Catolica beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Everton de Vina outscored their 1.28 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 0.86 / defence 1.01 against Everton de Vina attack 0.95 / defence 0.98, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 33% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 40%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 62%, Everton de Vina 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
U. Catolica's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — U. Catolica 1.45 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. U. Catolica (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.