Everton de Vina 1-2 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union La Calera at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 32 as Everton de Vina welcome Union La Calera to Estadio Sausalito. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 November 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Everton de Vina — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Estadio Sausalito, Everton de Vina have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Sausalito. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Everton de Vina are significantly better at Estadio Sausalito than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primera División games this season, Union La Calera have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Union La Calera away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Everton de Vina) versus 1.60 (Union La Calera). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 38% versus Union La Calera 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Everton de Vina 28% | Union La Calera 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 0.91 xG and Union La Calera 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.807 / defence 0.855 | Union La Calera attack 1.041 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.055 / away 1.303. Data: 29 Everton de Vina games / 29 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 28% | Draw 30% | Union La Calera 42%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Union La Calera 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union La Calera at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union La Calera offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Everton de Vina 30% | Union La Calera 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Nov 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 28% | Draw 30% | Union La Calera 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Everton de Vina 0.91 / Union La Calera 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.807 / def 0.855 | Union La Calera attack 1.041 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.055 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Union La Calera xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 14 November 2021 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera?
Everton de Vina 1 - 2 Union La Calera.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera part of?
Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 28% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Everton de Vina and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Union La Calera?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Everton de Vina and Union La Calera in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Union La Calera (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Everton de Vina's attack rating (0.81) and Union La Calera's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union La Calera's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
28%
3.51
30%
3.34
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.06
1.16
Union La Calera xG
3.51
28%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
9%
11.20
17%
5.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 14.7 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.16 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, Everton de Vina have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 10W 9D 10L record — W-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Union La Calera's form line: 14W 6D 9L from 29 games, 1.66 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton de Vina on 1.34 PPG, Union La Calera on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Everton de Vina have posted 1.57 PPG from 14 outings (6W 4D 4L).
On the road, Union La Calera have gone 7W 4D 3L from 14 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Everton de Vina are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 1.24 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Union La Calera
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 10W 9D 10L in their last 29 games (1.34 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 14W 6D 9L in their last 29 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Union La Calera away?
Union La Calera's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.57 PPG; Union La Calera away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Union La Calera been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Union La Calera in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton de Vina and Union La Calera runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 27 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Everton de Vina's record when hosting Union La Calera specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
6
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Union La Calera?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 1, Union La Calera have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2026, when Union La Calera 1-1 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Union La Calera?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 29%, Union La Calera 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Everton de Vina) and 57% (Union La Calera).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 29% of games; Union La Calera in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Union La Calera?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 57% of Union La Calera's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 57% of Union La Calera's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Union La Calera tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Union La Calera in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union La Calera edge out Everton de Vina 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Everton de Vina 1-2 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 32, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 0.91 xG and Union La Calera 1.16 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Union La Calera outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.81 / defence 0.85 against Union La Calera attack 1.04 / defence 1.06, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 28% | Draw 30% | Union La Calera 42%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 28%, Union La Calera 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Union La Calera's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.34 PPG, Union La Calera 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union La Calera win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.