Deportes Limache 0-1 Palestino – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Palestino at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Limache vs Palestino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza plays host to Deportes Limache versus Palestino in Primera División, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Palestino's overall Primera División record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Palestino have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Limache 1.10 xG and Palestino 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Limache attack 0.881 / defence 1.142 | Palestino attack 1.279 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 0.891. Palestino have an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — the away xG of 1.30 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Deportes Limache games / 40 Palestino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Limache 31% | Draw 27% | Palestino 41%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Limache 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Palestino 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palestino at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palestino if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Limache vs Palestino | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Limache 31% | Draw 27% | Palestino 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Deportes Limache 1.10 / Palestino 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Limache attack 0.881 / def 1.142 | Palestino attack 1.279 / def 0.816 | league avg home 1.532 / away 0.891 • Poisson stance: Palestino (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Deportes Limache xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Palestino xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Limache vs Palestino kick off?
Deportes Limache vs Palestino kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza.
What was the final score in Deportes Limache vs Palestino?
Deportes Limache 0 - 1 Palestino.
Where is Deportes Limache vs Palestino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza.
What competition is Deportes Limache vs Palestino part of?
Deportes Limache vs Palestino is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Limache vs Palestino?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Limache a 31% chance of winning, Palestino a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Palestino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Limache vs Palestino?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Deportes Limache and Palestino will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Limache vs Palestino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Limache and Palestino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Deportes Limache and Palestino in?
Palestino (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Palestino away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Deportes Limache's attack at 0.88x the league average against Palestino's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Palestino's attack (1.28x) against Deportes Limache's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palestino Win
31%
3.18
27%
3.64
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Deportes Limache xG
Total xG
2.40
1.30
Palestino xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
9%
11.71
14%
7.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Limache vs Palestino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Deportes Limache and Palestino expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Deportes Limache and 1.30 for Palestino, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Limache vs Palestino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Limache
Pre-Season
Palestino
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Palestino go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Deportes Limache
0
Draws
3
Palestino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Limache and Palestino?
From 3 meetings on record, Deportes Limache have won 0, Palestino have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Limache and Palestino last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Palestino 1-0 Deportes Limache.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Limache and Palestino?
Palestino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Limache home games / Palestino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Palestino edge out Deportes Limache 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palestino beat Deportes Limache 0-1 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza, Regular Season - 11, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Limache 1.10 xG and Palestino 1.30 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Deportes Limache fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Limache attack 0.88 / defence 1.14 against Palestino attack 1.28 / defence 0.82, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Limache 31% | Draw 27% | Palestino 41%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.