Deportes Iquique 4-1 Cobreloa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deportes Iquique at 75%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Iquique vs Cobreloa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Deportes Iquique host Cobreloa at Estadio Tierra de Campeones in Primera División, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 October 2024 at 21:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Deportes Iquique — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Iquique, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deportes Iquique's home record at Estadio Tierra de Campeones: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Deportes Iquique are significantly better at Estadio Tierra de Campeones than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primera División games this season, Cobreloa have recorded 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Cobreloa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cobreloa have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Deportes Iquique) versus 0.90 (Cobreloa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Deportes Iquique have won 0, Cobreloa 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Deportes Iquique trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Cobreloa trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deportes Iquique 74% versus Cobreloa 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Deportes Iquique 78% | Cobreloa 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Iquique 2.56 xG and Cobreloa 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Iquique attack 1.121 / defence 1.114 | Cobreloa attack 0.648 / defence 1.520. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.140. Cobreloa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.520 — this is suppressing Deportes Iquique's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Deportes Iquique games / 27 Cobreloa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 75% | Draw 15% | Cobreloa 10%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Iquique 1.33 | Draw 6.67 | Cobreloa 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Deportes Iquique (75%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Deportes Iquique as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Deportes Iquique 80% | Cobreloa 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Iquique vs Cobreloa | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio Tierra de Campeones • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 75% | Draw 15% | Cobreloa 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 52% | xG Deportes Iquique 2.56 / Cobreloa 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Iquique attack 1.121 / def 1.114 | Cobreloa attack 0.648 / def 1.520 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Deportes Iquique (75%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.56
Deportes Iquique xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Cobreloa xG
52%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Iquique vs Cobreloa kick off?
Deportes Iquique vs Cobreloa kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What was the final score in Deportes Iquique vs Cobreloa?
Deportes Iquique 4 - 1 Cobreloa.
Where is Deportes Iquique vs Cobreloa being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What competition is Deportes Iquique vs Cobreloa part of?
Deportes Iquique vs Cobreloa is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Iquique vs Cobreloa?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Iquique a 75% chance of winning, Cobreloa a 10% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Deportes Iquique the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Iquique vs Cobreloa?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Deportes Iquique and Cobreloa will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Iquique vs Cobreloa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Cobreloa?
Record (1 meetings): Deportes Iquique 0W | Draws 1 | Cobreloa 0W.
What form are Deportes Iquique and Cobreloa in?
Deportes Iquique (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Cobreloa (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Deportes Iquique vs Cobreloa?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Deportes Iquique's attack rating (1.12) and Cobreloa's defence rating (1.52), the model arrives at 2.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cobreloa's attack versus Deportes Iquique's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportes Iquique Win
75%
1.33
15%
6.54
10%
10.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.56
Deportes Iquique xG
Total xG
3.39
0.82
Cobreloa xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.54
15%
Draw
10.22
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
8%
13.00
Win to Nil
33%
3.04
1%
132.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Iquique vs Cobreloa?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Deportes Iquique and Cobreloa expected to score?
The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Deportes Iquique and 0.82 for Cobreloa, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Iquique vs Cobreloa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Deportes Iquique have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 12W 6D 9L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Deportes Iquique is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cobreloa's form line: 8W 3D 16L from 27 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Cobreloa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Deportes Iquique are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cobreloa.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Deportes Iquique have posted 2.00 PPG from 13 outings (8W 2D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — Deportes Iquique are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cobreloa have gone 2W 1D 10L from 13 away games — 0.54 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobreloa's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deportes Iquique come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Deportes Iquique are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Cobreloa are on 1.00 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deportes Iquique have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Iquique
Blended
Cobreloa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deportes Iquique and Cobreloa in coming into this match?
Deportes Iquique have gone 12W 6D 9L in their last 27 games (1.56 PPG), while Cobreloa have gone 8W 3D 16L in their last 27 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deportes Iquique at home or Cobreloa away?
Deportes Iquique's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deportes Iquique at home: 2.00 PPG; Cobreloa away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Deportes Iquique and Cobreloa runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 October 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Deportes Iquique
1
Draws
0
Cobreloa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Cobreloa?
From 2 meetings on record, Deportes Iquique have won 1, Cobreloa have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Iquique and Cobreloa last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2024, when Deportes Iquique 4-1 Cobreloa.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Iquique and Cobreloa?
Deportes Iquique have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Deportes Iquique are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Cobreloa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deportes Iquique 77%, Cobreloa 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Deportes Iquique and 62% for Cobreloa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cobreloa in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Iquique home games / Cobreloa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deportes Iquique play Cobreloa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 77% of Deportes Iquique's recent matches and 31% of Cobreloa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Deportes Iquique vs Cobreloa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Deportes Iquique's matches and 62% of Cobreloa's.
Do Deportes Iquique and Cobreloa tend to score early?
Deportes Iquique have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Cobreloa in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Deportes Iquique run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Cobreloa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Iquique beat Cobreloa 4-1 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 28, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 2.56 xG and Cobreloa 0.82 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Deportes Iquique beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 1.12 / defence 1.11 against Cobreloa attack 0.65 / defence 1.52, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 75% | Draw 15% | Cobreloa 10%, with Deportes Iquique to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Iquique 78%, Cobreloa 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deportes Iquique's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Cobreloa's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Deportes Iquique arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.85 average — above their attacking norm. Cobreloa (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.