Deportes Copiapo 3-5 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Everton de Vina at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Deportes Copiapo vs Everton de Vina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Deportes Copiapo and Everton de Vina meet at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla in Primera División, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 October 2024 at 21:30 UTC.
Current Form
Deportes Copiapo's overall Primera División record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Copiapo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deportes Copiapo at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Deportes Copiapo are significantly better at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla than their overall form suggests.
Everton de Vina have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Everton de Vina are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Deportes Copiapo, 2 for Everton de Vina and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Everton de Vina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Deportes Copiapo half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Everton de Vina half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deportes Copiapo 53% versus Everton de Vina 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deportes Copiapo 54% | Everton de Vina 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Copiapo 1.59 xG and Everton de Vina 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Copiapo attack 1.042 / defence 1.162 | Everton de Vina attack 1.243 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.140. Everton de Vina have an above-average attack strength of 1.243 — the away xG of 1.65 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Deportes Copiapo games / 57 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 37% | Draw 23% | Everton de Vina 39%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Copiapo 2.70 | Draw 4.35 | Everton de Vina 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton de Vina are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Deportes Copiapo 40% | Everton de Vina 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Copiapo vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 37% | Draw 23% | Everton de Vina 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Deportes Copiapo 1.59 / Everton de Vina 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Copiapo attack 1.042 / def 1.162 | Everton de Vina attack 1.243 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Deportes Copiapo xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Everton de Vina xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Copiapo vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Deportes Copiapo vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What was the final score in Deportes Copiapo vs Everton de Vina?
Deportes Copiapo 3 - 5 Everton de Vina.
Where is Deportes Copiapo vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What competition is Deportes Copiapo vs Everton de Vina part of?
Deportes Copiapo vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Copiapo vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Copiapo a 37% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 39% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Copiapo vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Deportes Copiapo and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Copiapo vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and Everton de Vina?
Record (3 meetings): Deportes Copiapo 1W | Draws 0 | Everton de Vina 2W.
What form are Deportes Copiapo and Everton de Vina in?
Deportes Copiapo (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Deportes Copiapo's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Everton de Vina's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Everton de Vina's attack (1.24x) against Deportes Copiapo's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
37%
2.68
23%
4.30
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Deportes Copiapo xG
Total xG
3.24
1.65
Everton de Vina xG
2.68
37%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
19%
5.18
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
7%
13.91
8%
12.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Copiapo vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Deportes Copiapo and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Deportes Copiapo and 1.65 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Copiapo vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Deportes Copiapo have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 15W 12D 30L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Deportes Copiapo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton de Vina's form line: 23W 14D 20L from 57 games, 1.46 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Everton de Vina are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Deportes Copiapo.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Deportes Copiapo have posted 1.50 PPG from 28 outings (12W 6D 10L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Deportes Copiapo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 12W 6D 10L from 28 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Deportes Copiapo are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.44 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina in 61%.
Last 57 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Copiapo
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deportes Copiapo and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Deportes Copiapo have gone 15W 12D 30L in their last 57 games (1.00 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 23W 14D 20L in their last 57 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deportes Copiapo at home or Everton de Vina away?
Deportes Copiapo's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deportes Copiapo at home: 1.50 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 October 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Everton de Vina have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Deportes Copiapo have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Everton de Vina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Deportes Copiapo
0
Draws
3
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and Everton de Vina?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Copiapo have won 1, Everton de Vina have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Copiapo and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2024, when Deportes Copiapo 3-5 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Copiapo and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Deportes Copiapo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deportes Copiapo 57%, Everton de Vina 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Deportes Copiapo) and 54% (Everton de Vina). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Copiapo home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deportes Copiapo play Everton de Vina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Deportes Copiapo's games and 68% of Everton de Vina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Deportes Copiapo vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Deportes Copiapo's matches and 54% of Everton de Vina's.
Do Deportes Copiapo and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Deportes Copiapo have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton de Vina cruise to a comfortable 3-5 victory over Deportes Copiapo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Deportes Copiapo 3-5 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla, Regular Season - 28, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Copiapo 1.59 xG and Everton de Vina 1.65 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 3-5 for 8 actual goals. Deportes Copiapo beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Everton de Vina outscored their 1.65 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Copiapo attack 1.04 / defence 1.16 against Everton de Vina attack 1.24 / defence 1.02, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Copiapo 37% | Draw 23% | Everton de Vina 39%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Copiapo 54%, Everton de Vina 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deportes Copiapo's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Everton de Vina arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Deportes Copiapo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.