York United 1-3 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates York United at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this York United vs Valour encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Valour make the trip to York Lions Stadium to face York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 September 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
York United have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at York Lions Stadium, York United have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Valour's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valour away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in York United's favour (1.50 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — York United lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2023, ended 2–1 with York United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
York United half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 50% versus Valour 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 54% | Valour 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.16 xG and Valour 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.817 / defence 1.146 | Valour attack 0.624 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.312. Data: 51 York United games / 50 Valour games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York United 40% | Draw 31% | Valour 29%. Fair-value odds: York United 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Valour 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates York United as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on York United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: York United 40% | Valour 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Sep 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 40% | Draw 31% | Valour 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG York United 1.16 / Valour 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.817 / def 1.146 | Valour attack 0.624 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: York United (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
York United xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Valour xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Valour kick off?
York United vs Valour kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 9 September 2023 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Valour?
York United 1 - 3 Valour.
Where is York United vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Valour part of?
York United vs Valour is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives York United a 40% chance of winning, Valour a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both York United and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Valour?
Record (1 meetings): York United 1W | Draws 0 | Valour 0W.
What form are York United and Valour in?
York United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Valour (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from York United's attack rating (0.82) and Valour's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Valour's attack (0.62x) against York United's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 51/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
40%
2.48
31%
3.26
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
York United xG
Total xG
2.10
0.94
Valour xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
9%
10.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 11.5 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are York United and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for York United and 0.94 for Valour, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Valour?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
York United come into this having played 50 games, going 18W 12D 20L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-W. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valour sit at 1.14 PPG from 50 outings (14W 15D 21L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for York United against 1.14 for Valour. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
York United's home form reads 8W 5D 10L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Valour have taken 0.78 points per game from 23 outings (4W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, York United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
York United are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.08 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
Valour
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Valour in coming into this match?
York United have gone 18W 12D 20L in their last 50 games (1.32 PPG), while Valour have gone 14W 15D 21L in their last 50 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Valour away?
York United's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.26 PPG; Valour away: 0.78 PPG.
Have York United or Valour been keeping clean sheets recently?
York United have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Valour in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 28 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, York United have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
York United
2
Draws
3
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 5, Valour have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did York United and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2025, when York United 1-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between York United and Valour?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 44%, Valour 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (York United) and 48% (Valour).
On the defensive side: York United have failed to score in 44% of games; Valour in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Valour?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of York United's recent matches and 56% of Valour's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of York United's recent games and 48% of Valour's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Valour tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Valour in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valour cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over York United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valour beat York United 1-3 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.16 xG and Valour 0.94 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Valour outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.82 / defence 1.15 against Valour attack 0.62 / defence 1.09, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 40% | Draw 31% | Valour 29%, with York United to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Valour win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 54%, Valour 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (50 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Valour's trading profile (50 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 1.32 PPG, Valour 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valour win broke the near-deadlock. York United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valour (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.