York United 2-4 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates York United at 35%, yet in-form Pacific FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this York United vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Pacific FC travel to York Lions Stadium to take on York United. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 July 2022, 00:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, York United have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, York United have posted 2W 2D 6L at York Lions Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Pacific FC — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pacific FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pacific FC are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
York United trading profile (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Pacific FC trading profile (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 54% versus Pacific FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 44% | Pacific FC 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 0.99 xG and Pacific FC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.744 / defence 0.906 | Pacific FC attack 0.838 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.281. York United's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 York United games / 43 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York United 35% | Draw 31% | Pacific FC 34%. Fair-value odds: York United 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Pacific FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, York United are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pacific FC (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on York United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: York United 40% | Pacific FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jul 2022, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 35% | Draw 31% | Pacific FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG York United 0.99 / Pacific FC 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.744 / def 0.906 | Pacific FC attack 0.838 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: York United (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
York United xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Pacific FC xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Pacific FC kick off?
York United vs Pacific FC kicked off at 00:30 on Saturday 16 July 2022 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Pacific FC?
York United 2 - 4 Pacific FC.
Where is York United vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Pacific FC part of?
York United vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives York United a 35% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both York United and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Pacific FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are York United and Pacific FC in?
York United (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Pacific FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates York United's attack at 0.74x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus York United's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
35%
2.88
31%
3.20
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
York United xG
Total xG
1.96
0.97
Pacific FC xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
13%
7.61
13%
7.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 13.7 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are York United and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for York United and 0.97 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
York United's recent record stands at 10W 17D 16L from 43 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC, meanwhile, have gone 20W 10D 13L across 43 games — 1.63 PPG, with L-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pacific FC by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over York United heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, York United have managed 6W 9D 7L from 22 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pacific FC's away record stands at 8W 5D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
York United are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.51 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pacific FC in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
York United have gone 10W 17D 16L in their last 43 games (1.09 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 20W 10D 13L in their last 43 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Pacific FC away?
Pacific FC's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.23 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2025, when York United won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
York United's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
York United
3
Draws
2
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 5, Pacific FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did York United and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pacific FC 1-1 York United.
Who has won more matches between York United and Pacific FC?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
York United see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Pacific FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 50%, Pacific FC 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (York United) and 46% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: York United keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Pacific FC in 36%; York United have failed to score in 32% of games; Pacific FC in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of York United's recent matches and 41% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of York United's recent games and 46% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Pacific FC cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over York United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat York United 2-4 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 0.99 xG and Pacific FC 0.97 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. York United beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pacific FC outscored their 0.97 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.74 / defence 0.91 against Pacific FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.05, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 35% | Draw 31% | Pacific FC 34%, with York United to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Pacific FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 44%, Pacific FC 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Pacific FC's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacific FC arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. York United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pacific FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.