York United 1-2 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates York United at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this York United vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Pacific FC travel to York Lions Stadium to take on York United. The game is scheduled for Friday 11 October 2024, 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, York United have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, York United have posted 5W 3D 2L at York Lions Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — York United are significantly better at York Lions Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Pacific FC — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pacific FC have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: York United 1.20 PPG, Pacific FC 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, York United have won 1, Pacific FC 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
York United trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Pacific FC trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 56% versus Pacific FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 58% | Pacific FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.28 xG and Pacific FC 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.974 / defence 0.886 | Pacific FC attack 0.771 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.144. Data: 54 York United games / 54 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York United 46% | Draw 33% | Pacific FC 21%. Fair-value odds: York United 2.17 | Draw 3.03 | Pacific FC 4.76. York United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, York United are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on York United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: York United 60% | Pacific FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 11 Oct 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 46% | Draw 33% | Pacific FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG York United 1.28 / Pacific FC 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.974 / def 0.886 | Pacific FC attack 0.771 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: York United (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
York United xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Pacific FC xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Pacific FC kick off?
York United vs Pacific FC kicked off at 01:00 on Friday 11 October 2024 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Pacific FC?
York United 1 - 2 Pacific FC.
Where is York United vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Pacific FC part of?
York United vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives York United a 46% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 21% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both York United and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Pacific FC?
Record (3 meetings): York United 1W | Draws 1 | Pacific FC 1W.
What form are York United and Pacific FC in?
York United (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Pacific FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about York United vs Pacific FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates York United's attack at 0.97x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus York United's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.4%), 0-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
46%
2.15
33%
3.07
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
York United xG
Total xG
2.06
0.78
Pacific FC xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
6%
17.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 9.9 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.7 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are York United and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for York United and 0.78 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
York United's recent record stands at 22W 11D 22L from 55 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 23L across 55 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: York United on 1.40 PPG, Pacific FC on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, York United have managed 11W 5D 11L from 27 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pacific FC's away record stands at 8W 6D 13L across 27 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
York United are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.22 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
York United have gone 22W 11D 22L in their last 55 games (1.40 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 19W 13D 23L in their last 55 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Pacific FC away?
York United's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.41 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2025, when York United won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
York United's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
York United
2
Draws
3
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 5, Pacific FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did York United and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Pacific FC 0-1 York United.
Who has won more matches between York United and Pacific FC?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 48%, Pacific FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (York United) and 48% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: York United have failed to score in 33% of games; Pacific FC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of York United's recent matches and 48% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of York United's recent games and 48% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Pacific FC tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pacific FC defy the odds to beat York United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat York United 1-2 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.28 xG and Pacific FC 0.78 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Pacific FC outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.97 / defence 0.89 against Pacific FC attack 0.77 / defence 0.95, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 46% | Draw 33% | Pacific FC 21%, with York United to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Pacific FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 58%, Pacific FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Pacific FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 1.40 PPG, Pacific FC 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacific FC win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.