York United 1-2 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as York United take on Forge.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
York United host Forge at York Lions Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
York United's home record at York Lions Stadium: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Forge have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: York United 1.70 PPG, Forge 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
York United trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
Forge trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 62% versus Forge 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 46% | Forge 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 0.86 xG and Forge 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.812 / defence 1.028 | Forge attack 0.811 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.161. Data: 26 York United games / 24 Forge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York United 28% | Draw 38% | Forge 34%. Fair-value odds: York United 3.57 | Draw 2.63 | Forge 2.94. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.83 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: York United 50% | Forge 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 28% | Draw 38% | Forge 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 39% | xG York United 0.86 / Forge 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.812 / def 1.028 | Forge attack 0.811 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
York United xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Forge xG
39%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Forge kick off?
York United vs Forge kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Forge?
York United 1 - 2 Forge.
Where is York United vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Forge part of?
York United vs Forge is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives York United a 28% chance of winning, Forge a 34% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in York United vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both York United and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Forge?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are York United and Forge in?
York United (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Forge (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
York United's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Forge's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. The same calculation in reverse, Forge's attack versus York United's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.58
38%
2.61
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
York United xG
Total xG
1.83
0.97
Forge xG
3.58
28%
Home win
2.61
38%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
14%
7.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 15.5 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are York United and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for York United and 0.97 for Forge, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 24 outings, York United have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 8W 11D 5L record — D-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Forge's form line: 14W 2D 8L from 24 games, 1.83 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: York United on 1.46 PPG, Forge on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, York United have posted 1.64 PPG from 11 outings (4W 6D 1L).
On the road, Forge have gone 6W 1D 4L from 11 away games — 1.73 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
York United are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.42 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York United have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Forge in 29%.
Defensively: Forge in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
Forge
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Forge in coming into this match?
York United have gone 8W 11D 5L in their last 24 games (1.46 PPG), while Forge have gone 14W 2D 8L in their last 24 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Forge away?
Forge's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.64 PPG; Forge away: 1.73 PPG.
Have York United or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
York United have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Forge in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Forge go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Forge won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
York United's record when hosting Forge specifically: 0W 2D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
York United
3
Draws
7
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Forge?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 0, Forge have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did York United and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when York United 1-3 Forge.
Who has won more matches between York United and Forge?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
York United see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 54%, Forge 18% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for York United and 27% for Forge.
On the defensive side: York United keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Forge in 54%; York United have failed to score in 27% of games; Forge in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Forge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of York United's recent matches and 18% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of York United's recent games and 27% of Forge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Forge tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Forge in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Forge edge out York United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat York United 1-2 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 0.86 xG and Forge 0.97 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Forge outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.81 / defence 1.03 against Forge attack 0.81 / defence 0.92, drawn from 26/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 28% | Draw 38% | Forge 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Forge win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 46%, Forge 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Forge's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 1.46 PPG, Forge 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Forge win broke the near-deadlock. York United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Forge (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.