Vancouver FC 1-1 Supra du Quebec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vancouver FC at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vancouver FC and Supra du Quebec meet at Willoughby Community Park Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 May 2026 at 22:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vancouver FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vancouver FC have posted 2W 3D 5L at Willoughby Community Park Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vancouver FC 2.04 xG and Supra du Quebec 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vancouver FC attack 0.978 / defence 1.056 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: 28 Vancouver FC games / 0 Supra du Quebec games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Vancouver FC 56% | Draw 24% | Supra du Quebec 19%. Fair-value odds: Vancouver FC 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Supra du Quebec 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Vancouver FC (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vancouver FC at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: Willoughby Community Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 May 2026, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vancouver FC 56% | Draw 24% | Supra du Quebec 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Vancouver FC 2.04 / Supra du Quebec 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Vancouver FC attack 0.978 / def 1.056 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Vancouver FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Vancouver FC xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Supra du Quebec xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec kick off?
Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec kicked off at 22:00 on Saturday 23 May 2026 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Vancouver FC 1 - 1 Supra du Quebec.
Where is Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec being played?
The match is being played at Willoughby Community Park Stadium.
What competition is Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec part of?
Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Our statistical model gives Vancouver FC a 56% chance of winning, Supra du Quebec a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Vancouver FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Vancouver FC and Supra du Quebec will score (BTTS).
Will Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Supra du Quebec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vancouver FC and Supra du Quebec in?
Vancouver FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Vancouver FC home split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Vancouver FC's attack at 0.98x the league average against Supra du Quebec's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Supra du Quebec's attack (0.85x) against Vancouver FC's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 28/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vancouver FC Win
56%
1.77
24%
4.10
19%
5.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Vancouver FC xG
Total xG
3.17
1.14
Supra du Quebec xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
5.23
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
13%
7.65
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
2%
40.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Vancouver FC and Supra du Quebec expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Vancouver FC and 1.14 for Supra du Quebec, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vancouver FC
Pre-Season
Supra du Quebec
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Vancouver FC
1
Draws
0
Supra du Quebec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Supra du Quebec?
From 2 meetings on record, Vancouver FC have won 1, Supra du Quebec have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vancouver FC and Supra du Quebec last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Supra du Quebec 1-5 Vancouver FC.
Who has won more matches between Vancouver FC and Supra du Quebec?
Vancouver FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vancouver FC home games / Supra du Quebec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Vancouver FC and Supra du Quebec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Willoughby Community Park Stadium, Group Stage, as Vancouver FC and Supra du Quebec drew 1-1 in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 2.04 xG and Supra du Quebec 1.14 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Vancouver FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.06 against Supra du Quebec attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 28/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 56% | Draw 24% | Supra du Quebec 19%, with Vancouver FC to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.