Vancouver FC 0-4 HFX Wanderers FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vancouver FC at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre plays host to Vancouver FC versus HFX Wanderers FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Monday 24 June 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vancouver FC have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Vancouver FC's home record at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
HFX Wanderers FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, HFX Wanderers FC have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Vancouver FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, HFX Wanderers FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Vancouver FC 1W, HFX Wanderers FC 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2024, ended 2–0 with Vancouver FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Vancouver FC — key trading statistics (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
HFX Wanderers FC — key trading statistics (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vancouver FC 57% versus HFX Wanderers FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vancouver FC 61% | HFX Wanderers FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vancouver FC 1.67 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vancouver FC attack 1.062 / defence 0.854 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.981 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.033. Data: 38 Vancouver FC games / 37 HFX Wanderers FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vancouver FC 53% | Draw 31% | HFX Wanderers FC 16%. Fair-value odds: Vancouver FC 1.89 | Draw 3.23 | HFX Wanderers FC 6.25. Vancouver FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vancouver FC are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vancouver FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vancouver FC 70% | HFX Wanderers FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre • Kick-off: Monday 24 Jun 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vancouver FC 53% | Draw 31% | HFX Wanderers FC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Vancouver FC 1.67 / HFX Wanderers FC 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Vancouver FC attack 1.062 / def 0.854 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.981 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: Vancouver FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Vancouver FC xG
Expected Goals
0.87
HFX Wanderers FC xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC kick off?
Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC kicked off at 00:00 on Monday 24 June 2024 at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre.
What was the final score in Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Vancouver FC 0 - 4 HFX Wanderers FC.
Where is Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC being played?
The match is being played at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre.
What competition is Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC part of?
Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our statistical model gives Vancouver FC a 53% chance of winning, HFX Wanderers FC a 16% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Vancouver FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC will score (BTTS).
Will Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC?
Record (1 meetings): Vancouver FC 1W | Draws 0 | HFX Wanderers FC 0W.
What form are Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC in?
Vancouver FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. HFX Wanderers FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vancouver FC's attack rating (1.06) and HFX Wanderers FC's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — HFX Wanderers FC's attack (0.98x) against Vancouver FC's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vancouver FC Win
53%
1.89
31%
3.21
16%
6.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Vancouver FC xG
Total xG
2.54
0.87
HFX Wanderers FC xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
6.28
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
3%
33.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.5 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Vancouver FC and 0.87 for HFX Wanderers FC, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vancouver FC's recent record stands at 8W 5D 15L from 28 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
HFX Wanderers FC, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 9L across 28 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours HFX Wanderers FC by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vancouver FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Vancouver FC have managed 5W 2D 6L from 13 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
HFX Wanderers FC's away record stands at 2W 7D 4L across 13 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.46 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of HFX Wanderers FC's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vancouver FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; HFX Wanderers FC are on 1.36 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: HFX Wanderers FC in 61%.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vancouver FC
Current Season
HFX Wanderers FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC in coming into this match?
Vancouver FC have gone 8W 5D 15L in their last 28 games (1.04 PPG), while HFX Wanderers FC have gone 11W 8D 9L in their last 28 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vancouver FC at home or HFX Wanderers FC away?
Vancouver FC's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vancouver FC at home: 1.31 PPG; HFX Wanderers FC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
HFX Wanderers FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: HFX Wanderers FC won 0-4 on 24 Jun 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vancouver FC have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against HFX Wanderers FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Vancouver FC
1
Draws
6
HFX Wanderers FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Vancouver FC have won 3, HFX Wanderers FC have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when HFX Wanderers FC 1-0 Vancouver FC.
Who has won more matches between Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC?
HFX Wanderers FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
HFX Wanderers FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vancouver FC 62%, HFX Wanderers FC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 77% (Vancouver FC) and 31% (HFX Wanderers FC).
On the defensive side: Vancouver FC have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vancouver FC home games / HFX Wanderers FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vancouver FC play HFX Wanderers FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Vancouver FC's games and 62% of HFX Wanderers FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 77% of Vancouver FC's recent games and 31% of HFX Wanderers FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC tend to score early?
Vancouver FC have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, HFX Wanderers FC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant HFX Wanderers FC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Vancouver FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
HFX Wanderers FC beat Vancouver FC 0-4 at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre, Regular Season - 6, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 1.67 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 0.87 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Vancouver FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. HFX Wanderers FC outscored their 0.87 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.85 against HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.06, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 53% | Draw 31% | HFX Wanderers FC 16%, with Vancouver FC to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a HFX Wanderers FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 61%, HFX Wanderers FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vancouver FC's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, HFX Wanderers FC arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.