Vancouver FC 0-2 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vancouver FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cavalry FC make the trip to Willoughby Community Park Stadium to face Vancouver FC in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. The match kicks off on Monday 18 May 2026 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vancouver FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Vancouver FC at Willoughby Community Park Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cavalry FC (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cavalry FC away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Cavalry FC are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Vancouver FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Cavalry FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Vancouver FC 0W, Cavalry FC 2W, 5D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Vancouver FC — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Cavalry FC — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vancouver FC 61% and Cavalry FC 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vancouver FC 55% | Cavalry FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vancouver FC 1.78 xG and Cavalry FC 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vancouver FC attack 0.977 / defence 1.059 | Cavalry FC attack 1.007 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: 28 Vancouver FC games / 28 Cavalry FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Vancouver FC 46% | Draw 27% | Cavalry FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Vancouver FC 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Cavalry FC 3.70. Vancouver FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vancouver FC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cavalry FC (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vancouver FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vancouver FC 70% | Cavalry FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: Willoughby Community Park Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 18 May 2026, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vancouver FC 46% | Draw 27% | Cavalry FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Vancouver FC 1.78 / Cavalry FC 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Vancouver FC attack 0.977 / def 1.059 | Cavalry FC attack 1.007 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Vancouver FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Vancouver FC xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Cavalry FC xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 01:00 on Monday 18 May 2026 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Vancouver FC 0 - 2 Cavalry FC.
Where is Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Willoughby Community Park Stadium.
What competition is Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC part of?
Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Vancouver FC a 46% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vancouver FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC?
Record (7 meetings): Vancouver FC 0W | Draws 5 | Cavalry FC 2W.
What form are Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC in?
Vancouver FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Cavalry FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vancouver FC's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Cavalry FC's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (1.01x) against Vancouver FC's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vancouver FC Win
46%
2.18
27%
3.76
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Vancouver FC xG
Total xG
3.14
1.35
Cavalry FC xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
5%
21.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.5 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Vancouver FC and 1.35 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vancouver FC's recent record stands at 11W 18D 27L from 56 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-D in the last five.
Cavalry FC, meanwhile, have gone 26W 18D 12L across 56 games — 1.71 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cavalry FC by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vancouver FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Vancouver FC have managed 6W 8D 14L from 28 games — 0.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cavalry FC's away record stands at 12W 8D 8L across 28 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vancouver FC are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.59 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vancouver FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Cavalry FC in 61%.
Last 56 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vancouver FC
Current Season
Cavalry FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Vancouver FC have gone 11W 18D 27L in their last 56 games (0.91 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 26W 18D 12L in their last 56 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vancouver FC at home or Cavalry FC away?
Cavalry FC's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vancouver FC at home: 0.93 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vancouver FC have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Vancouver FC
5
Draws
4
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Vancouver FC have won 1, Cavalry FC have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Cavalry FC 1-0 Vancouver FC.
Who has won more matches between Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vancouver FC 57%, Cavalry FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vancouver FC) and 54% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Vancouver FC have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vancouver FC home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vancouver FC play Cavalry FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Vancouver FC's games and 57% of Cavalry FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vancouver FC's recent games and 54% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Vancouver FC have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cavalry FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Vancouver FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Vancouver FC 0-2 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 1.78 xG and Cavalry FC 1.35 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Vancouver FC fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.06 against Cavalry FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.01, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 46% | Draw 27% | Cavalry FC 27%, with Vancouver FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Cavalry FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 55%, Cavalry FC 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vancouver FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.