Valour 3-0 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valour at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valour vs York United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
IG Field plays host to Valour versus York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Monday 19 July 2021 at 00:30 UTC.
Current Form
Valour's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 5W 0D 1L from 6 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.33 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.33 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 6 games (83%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Valour have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Valour at IG Field this season: 3W 0D 0L from 3 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 3 home games (100%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at IG Field. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Valour are significantly better at IG Field than their overall form suggests.
York United (all games): 1W 3D 2L across 6 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. York United have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
York United's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 2L across 3 road games this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Valour's 2.50 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of York United's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Valour — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they keep a clean sheet 83% of the time.
York United — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 17% versus York United 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 17% | York United 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.57 xG and York United 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 1.214 / defence 0.827 | York United attack 0.760 / defence 1.534. League average goals — home 0.841 / away 0.919. York United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.534 — this is suppressing Valour's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Valour games / 6 York United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Valour 62% | Draw 25% | York United 14%. Fair-value odds: Valour 1.61 | Draw 4.00 | York United 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Valour (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — York United's lower xG of 0.58 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valour at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Valour 0% | York United 67% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (6 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Monday 19 Jul 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 62% | Draw 25% | York United 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 35% | xG Valour 1.57 / York United 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 1.214 / def 0.827 | York United attack 0.760 / def 1.534 | league avg home 0.841 / away 0.919 • Poisson stance: Valour (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Valour xG
Expected Goals
0.58
York United xG
35%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs York United kick off?
Valour vs York United kicked off at 00:30 on Monday 19 July 2021 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Valour vs York United?
Valour 3 - 0 York United.
Where is Valour vs York United being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Valour vs York United part of?
Valour vs York United is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 62% chance of winning, York United a 14% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Valour the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs York United?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Valour and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valour and York United in?
Valour (all comps): 5W-0D-1L in 6 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.33 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. York United (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Valour's attack at 1.21x the league average against York United's defence at 1.53x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — York United's attack (0.76x) against Valour's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.58.
The sample (6/6 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (14.4%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valour Win
62%
1.63
25%
4.00
14%
7.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.4%
Home win
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Valour xG
Total xG
2.14
0.58
York United xG
1.63
62%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
7.41
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.88
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
56%
1.78
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
35%
2.90
3%
35.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.4 | 10.6 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.4 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Valour and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Valour and 0.58 for York United, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs York United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valour come into this having played 6 games, going 5W 0D 1L for 2.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Valour, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, York United sit at 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (1W 3D 2L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for York United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Valour carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of York United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Valour's home form reads 3W 0D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.50 PPG overall — Valour are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, York United have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of York United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valour come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valour are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valour have seen both teams score in 17% of their recent games; York United in 67%.
Defensively: Valour have kept a clean sheet in 83% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Early Season
York United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and York United in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 5W 0D 1L in their last 6 games (2.50 PPG), while York United have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or York United away?
Valour's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 3.00 PPG; York United away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Valour or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valour have kept a clean sheet in 83% of their recent games, York United in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 28 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valour have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Valour
2
Draws
5
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 3, York United have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valour and York United last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2025, when York United 1-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Valour and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Valour) and 67% (York United) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Valour and 67% for York United.
On the defensive side: Valour keep a clean sheet in 100% of their matches; York United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play York United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Valour's recent matches and 67% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valour vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Valour's recent games and 67% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and York United tend to score early?
Valour have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, York United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Valour run riot with a 3-0 hammering of York United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valour beat York United 3-0 at IG Field, Regular Season - 4, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.57 xG and York United 0.58 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Valour beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 1.21 / defence 0.83 against York United attack 0.76 / defence 1.53, drawn from 6/6 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Valour 62% | Draw 25% | York United 14%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 17%, York United 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 83% of the time, and duly kept one.
York United's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Valour arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Valour (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. York United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.