Valour 1-1 FC Edmonton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valour at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valour vs FC Edmonton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
IG Field plays host to Valour versus FC Edmonton in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 21 August 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valour have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at IG Field, Valour have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at IG Field. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Edmonton (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Edmonton away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Valour. A 0.90 PPG lead over FC Edmonton (1.60 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Valour 1W, FC Edmonton 2W, 5D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Jun 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
FC Edmonton half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 49% versus FC Edmonton 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 47% | FC Edmonton 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.95 xG and FC Edmonton 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.918 / defence 0.823 | FC Edmonton attack 0.844 / defence 1.488. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.331. FC Edmonton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.488 — this is suppressing Valour's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Valour games / 48 FC Edmonton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valour 61% | Draw 21% | FC Edmonton 17%. Fair-value odds: Valour 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | FC Edmonton 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Valour (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valour are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Valour 30% | FC Edmonton 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs FC Edmonton | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 61% | Draw 21% | FC Edmonton 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 52% | xG Valour 1.95 / FC Edmonton 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.918 / def 0.823 | FC Edmonton attack 0.844 / def 1.488 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Valour (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Valour xG
Expected Goals
0.93
FC Edmonton xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs FC Edmonton kick off?
Valour vs FC Edmonton kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Valour vs FC Edmonton?
Valour 1 - 1 FC Edmonton.
Where is Valour vs FC Edmonton being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Valour vs FC Edmonton part of?
Valour vs FC Edmonton is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs FC Edmonton?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 61% chance of winning, FC Edmonton a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Valour the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs FC Edmonton?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Valour and FC Edmonton will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs FC Edmonton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and FC Edmonton?
Record (8 meetings): Valour 1W | Draws 5 | FC Edmonton 2W.
What form are Valour and FC Edmonton in?
Valour (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. FC Edmonton (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Valour's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against FC Edmonton's defensive record (1.49x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. Flip it around — FC Edmonton's attack (0.84x) against Valour's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valour Win
61%
1.63
21%
4.66
17%
5.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Valour xG
Total xG
2.87
0.93
FC Edmonton xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
5.78
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
14%
7.01
Win to Nil
24%
4.12
2%
40.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.2 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs FC Edmonton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Valour and FC Edmonton expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Valour and 0.93 for FC Edmonton, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs FC Edmonton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Valour have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 17W 10D 20L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Edmonton's form line: 8W 15D 24L from 47 games, 0.83 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Valour are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Edmonton.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Valour have posted 1.65 PPG from 23 outings (11W 5D 7L).
On the road, FC Edmonton have gone 1W 8D 14L from 23 away games — 0.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valour come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Valour are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; FC Edmonton are on 1.19 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Edmonton in 66%.
Last 47 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Blended
FC Edmonton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and FC Edmonton in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 17W 10D 20L in their last 47 games (1.30 PPG), while FC Edmonton have gone 8W 15D 24L in their last 47 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or FC Edmonton away?
Valour's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.65 PPG; FC Edmonton away: 0.48 PPG.
Have Valour or FC Edmonton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valour have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, FC Edmonton in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valour won 3-0 on 25 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valour have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Edmonton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Valour
6
Draws
3
FC Edmonton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and FC Edmonton?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 1, FC Edmonton have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Valour and FC Edmonton last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2022, when FC Edmonton 3-1 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Valour and FC Edmonton?
FC Edmonton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
FC Edmonton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valour 30%, FC Edmonton 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Valour) and 56% (FC Edmonton).
On the defensive side: Valour keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Valour have failed to score in 26% of games; FC Edmonton in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / FC Edmonton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play FC Edmonton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Valour's recent matches and 70% of FC Edmonton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valour vs FC Edmonton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Valour's recent games and 56% of FC Edmonton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and FC Edmonton tend to score early?
Valour have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, FC Edmonton in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valour and FC Edmonton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at IG Field, Regular Season - 9, as Valour and FC Edmonton drew 1-1 in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.95 xG and FC Edmonton 0.93 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Valour fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.92 / defence 0.82 against FC Edmonton attack 0.84 / defence 1.49, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 61% | Draw 21% | FC Edmonton 17%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 47%, FC Edmonton 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Edmonton's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Valour arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.