Supra du Quebec 0-1 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atlético Ottawa make the trip to CEPSUM Stadium to face Supra du Quebec in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Atlético Ottawa (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Atlético Ottawa away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Supra du Quebec 1.46 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.036 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: 0 Supra du Quebec games / 28 Atlético Ottawa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 35% | Draw 28% | Atlético Ottawa 37%. Fair-value odds: Supra du Quebec 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Atlético Ottawa 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atlético Ottawa are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: CEPSUM Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 35% | Draw 28% | Atlético Ottawa 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Supra du Quebec 1.46 / Atlético Ottawa 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.036 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Supra du Quebec xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Atlético Ottawa xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at CEPSUM Stadium.
What was the final score in Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa?
Supra du Quebec 0 - 1 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at CEPSUM Stadium.
What competition is Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives Supra du Quebec a 35% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Supra du Quebec and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Supra du Quebec and Atlético Ottawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Supra du Quebec and Atlético Ottawa in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Atlético Ottawa away split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Supra du Quebec's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Atlético Ottawa's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Atlético Ottawa's attack (1.04x) against Supra du Quebec's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 0/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
35%
2.88
28%
3.55
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Supra du Quebec xG
Total xG
2.97
1.51
Atlético Ottawa xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
8%
13.04
9%
11.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.3 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Supra du Quebec and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Supra du Quebec and 1.51 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Supra du Quebec
Pre-Season
Atlético Ottawa
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since April 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Atlético Ottawa have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Supra du Quebec have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Supra du Quebec
0
Draws
3
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Supra du Quebec and Atlético Ottawa?
From 3 meetings on record, Supra du Quebec have won 0, Atlético Ottawa have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Supra du Quebec and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Supra du Quebec 1-2 Atlético Ottawa.
Who has won more matches between Supra du Quebec and Atlético Ottawa?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Supra du Quebec home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Atlético Ottawa edge out Supra du Quebec 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat Supra du Quebec 0-1 at CEPSUM Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Supra du Quebec 1.46 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.51 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Supra du Quebec fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Supra du Quebec attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.04 / defence 0.95, drawn from 0/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Supra du Quebec 35% | Draw 28% | Atlético Ottawa 37%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.