Pacific FC 0-1 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 42%, yet in-form Forge provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pacific FC vs Forge fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Forge make the trip to Starlight Stadium to face Pacific FC in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 22:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pacific FC have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pacific FC at Starlight Stadium this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Pacific FC are significantly better at Starlight Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Forge (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Forge away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, Forge are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Pacific FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Forge in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Forge hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 0–4 with Forge winning.
It is worth noting that Forge have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Pacific FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Forge goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 44% versus Forge 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 46% | Forge 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.67 xG and Forge 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 0.977 / defence 1.082 | Forge attack 1.014 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: 28 Pacific FC games / 28 Forge games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 42% | Draw 27% | Forge 30%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Forge 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pacific FC at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Forge (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pacific FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pacific FC 70% | Forge 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 42% | Draw 27% | Forge 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Pacific FC 1.67 / Forge 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 0.977 / def 1.082 | Forge attack 1.014 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Forge xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Forge kick off?
Pacific FC vs Forge kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Forge?
Pacific FC 0 - 1 Forge.
Where is Pacific FC vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Forge part of?
Pacific FC vs Forge is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 42% chance of winning, Forge a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Pacific FC and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Forge?
Record (8 meetings): Pacific FC 1W | Draws 1 | Forge 6W.
What form are Pacific FC and Forge in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Forge (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pacific FC's attack rating (0.98) and Forge's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Forge's attack (1.01x) against Pacific FC's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
42%
2.36
27%
3.65
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
3.06
1.39
Forge xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
11%
9.50
6%
17.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.9 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.39 for Forge, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pacific FC come into this having played 57 games, going 14W 15D 28L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, Forge sit at 1.77 PPG from 57 outings (29W 14D 14L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Forge carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Pacific FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Pacific FC's home form reads 9W 7D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Forge have taken 1.41 points per game from 27 outings (10W 8D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Pacific FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.61 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Forge in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Current Season
Forge
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Forge in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 14W 15D 28L in their last 57 games (1.00 PPG), while Forge have gone 29W 14D 14L in their last 57 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Forge away?
Forge's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.26 PPG; Forge away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Pacific FC or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Forge in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Forge have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Forge won 4-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pacific FC have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Forge — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pacific FC
1
Draws
8
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Forge?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 1, Forge have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Forge 2-0 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Forge?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 44%, Forge 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Pacific FC) and 52% (Forge).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Forge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 56% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacific FC vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Pacific FC's recent games and 52% of Forge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacific FC and Forge tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Forge in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Forge defy the odds to beat Pacific FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat Pacific FC 0-1 at Starlight Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.67 xG and Forge 1.39 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pacific FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.08 against Forge attack 1.01 / defence 0.94, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 42% | Draw 27% | Forge 30%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Forge win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 46%, Forge 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Forge's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Forge (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.