Pacific FC 2-1 FC Edmonton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Canadian Premier League clash, Regular Season - 3 as Pacific FC welcome FC Edmonton to Starlight Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 May 2022 at 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Pacific FC have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pacific FC at Starlight Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Pacific FC are significantly better at Starlight Stadium than their overall form suggests.
FC Edmonton — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
FC Edmonton's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Pacific FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Pacific FC, 1 for FC Edmonton and 3 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Pacific FC in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games).
FC Edmonton in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pacific FC 64% and FC Edmonton 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 64% | FC Edmonton 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 2.40 xG and FC Edmonton 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 1.316 / defence 1.063 | FC Edmonton attack 0.879 / defence 1.300. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.090. Pacific FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.316 — their λ of 2.40 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Edmonton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.300 — this is suppressing Pacific FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Pacific FC games / 34 FC Edmonton games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 68% | Draw 18% | FC Edmonton 14%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | FC Edmonton 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Pacific FC (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pacific FC as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.42 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pacific FC 90% | FC Edmonton 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 68% | Draw 18% | FC Edmonton 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 58% | xG Pacific FC 2.40 / FC Edmonton 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 1.316 / def 1.063 | FC Edmonton attack 0.879 / def 1.300 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.02
FC Edmonton xG
58%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton kick off?
Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton?
Pacific FC 2 - 1 FC Edmonton.
Where is Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton part of?
Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 68% chance of winning, FC Edmonton a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Pacific FC and FC Edmonton will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and FC Edmonton?
Record (6 meetings): Pacific FC 2W | Draws 3 | FC Edmonton 1W.
What form are Pacific FC and FC Edmonton in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. FC Edmonton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pacific FC's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against FC Edmonton's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.40. The same calculation in reverse, FC Edmonton's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (34/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.4%), 1-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
68%
1.47
18%
5.64
14%
6.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
3.42
1.02
FC Edmonton xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.64
18%
Draw
6.98
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
9%
11.03
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
1%
77.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and FC Edmonton expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.02 for FC Edmonton, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pacific FC come into this having played 28 games, going 14W 5D 9L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, FC Edmonton sit at 1.00 PPG from 28 outings (6W 10D 12L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five.
Pacific FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of FC Edmonton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Pacific FC's home form reads 8W 2D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Edmonton have taken 0.69 points per game from 13 outings (1W 6D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pacific FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pacific FC are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; FC Edmonton are on 1.21 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pacific FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; FC Edmonton in 61%.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Current Season
FC Edmonton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and FC Edmonton in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 14W 5D 9L in their last 28 games (1.68 PPG), while FC Edmonton have gone 6W 10D 12L in their last 28 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or FC Edmonton away?
Pacific FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Edmonton away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Pacific FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2021, when Pacific FC won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting FC Edmonton specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Pacific FC
3
Draws
1
FC Edmonton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and FC Edmonton?
From 9 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 5, FC Edmonton have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and FC Edmonton last play each other?
They last met on 1 October 2022, when Pacific FC 1-0 FC Edmonton.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and FC Edmonton?
Pacific FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
FC Edmonton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pacific FC at 85%, FC Edmonton at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 85% for Pacific FC and 46% for FC Edmonton. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Edmonton in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / FC Edmonton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play FC Edmonton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 85% of Pacific FC's games and 62% of FC Edmonton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of Pacific FC's matches and 46% of FC Edmonton's.
Do Pacific FC and FC Edmonton tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, FC Edmonton in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pacific FC edge out FC Edmonton 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat FC Edmonton 2-1 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 2.40 xG and FC Edmonton 1.02 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.32 / defence 1.06 against FC Edmonton attack 0.88 / defence 1.30, drawn from 34/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 68% | Draw 18% | FC Edmonton 14%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 64%, FC Edmonton 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
FC Edmonton's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacific FC arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.