Pacific FC 2-0 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pacific FC host Cavalry FC at Starlight Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 July 2021 at 02:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Pacific FC — All Games: 4W 2D 2L from 8 Canadian Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.75 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.62 goals per game, with 1.12 conceded. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Starlight Stadium, Pacific FC have gone 3W 0D 1L this season (4 games, 2.25 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Starlight Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.75 — Pacific FC are significantly better at Starlight Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Cavalry FC have recorded 4W 2D 2L from 8 outings — 1.75 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC's away record: 3W 1D 0L from 4 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.75 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pacific FC at 1.75 PPG versus Cavalry FC's 1.75. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Pacific FC trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Cavalry FC trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 38% versus Cavalry FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 62% | Cavalry FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.46 xG and Cavalry FC 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 1.503 / defence 1.258 | Cavalry FC attack 1.260 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 0.913 / away 0.887. Pacific FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.503 — their λ of 1.46 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cavalry FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 8 Pacific FC games / 8 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 39% | Draw 25% | Cavalry FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Cavalry FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pacific FC at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pacific FC 50% | Cavalry FC 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 02:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 39% | Draw 25% | Cavalry FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Pacific FC 1.46 / Cavalry FC 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 1.503 / def 1.258 | Cavalry FC attack 1.260 / def 1.060 | league avg home 0.913 / away 0.887 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Cavalry FC xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 02:30 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Pacific FC 2 - 0 Cavalry FC.
Where is Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC part of?
Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 39% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Pacific FC and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and Cavalry FC in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 4W-2D-2L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.62 / GA 1.12 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Cavalry FC (all comps): 4W-2D-2L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pacific FC's attack rating (1.50) and Cavalry FC's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cavalry FC's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
39%
2.59
25%
4.01
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.86
1.41
Cavalry FC xG
2.59
39%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
9%
10.57
9%
11.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.41 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, Pacific FC have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 4W 2D 2L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cavalry FC's form line: 4W 2D 2L from 8 games, 1.75 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pacific FC on 1.75 PPG, Cavalry FC on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pacific FC have posted 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Pacific FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 away games — 2.50 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.75 PPG overall record — Cavalry FC travel well.
The Goals Picture
Pacific FC are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.25 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 games (1.75 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Cavalry FC away?
Cavalry FC's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 2.25 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Pacific FC or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cavalry FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting Cavalry FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pacific FC
3
Draws
6
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 1, Cavalry FC have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Cavalry FC 3-0 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 50%, Cavalry FC 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Pacific FC and 75% for Cavalry FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pacific FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Cavalry FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Pacific FC's games and 75% of Cavalry FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Pacific FC's matches and 75% of Cavalry FC's.
Do Pacific FC and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pacific FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cavalry FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat Cavalry FC 2-0 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.46 xG and Cavalry FC 1.41 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cavalry FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.50 / defence 1.26 against Cavalry FC attack 1.26 / defence 1.06, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 39% | Draw 25% | Cavalry FC 36%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 62%, Cavalry FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.75 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacific FC win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.