HFX Wanderers FC 3-1 FC Edmonton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates HFX Wanderers FC at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wanderers Grounds plays host to HFX Wanderers FC versus FC Edmonton in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 30 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
HFX Wanderers FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, HFX Wanderers FC have posted 5W 3D 2L at Wanderers Grounds — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — HFX Wanderers FC are significantly better at Wanderers Grounds than their overall form suggests.
FC Edmonton's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
FC Edmonton's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for HFX Wanderers FC, 1.00 for FC Edmonton — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: HFX Wanderers FC 2W, FC Edmonton 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with HFX Wanderers FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
HFX Wanderers FC half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
FC Edmonton half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — HFX Wanderers FC 50% versus FC Edmonton 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (HFX Wanderers FC 43% | FC Edmonton 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects HFX Wanderers FC 1.67 xG and FC Edmonton 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.959 / defence 0.955 | FC Edmonton attack 0.830 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.179. Data: 31 HFX Wanderers FC games / 32 FC Edmonton games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: HFX Wanderers FC 55% | Draw 24% | FC Edmonton 21%. Fair-value odds: HFX Wanderers FC 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | FC Edmonton 4.76. The model has a clear lean to HFX Wanderers FC (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is HFX Wanderers FC at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: HFX Wanderers FC 50% | FC Edmonton 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Wanderers Grounds • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: HFX Wanderers FC 55% | Draw 24% | FC Edmonton 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG HFX Wanderers FC 1.67 / FC Edmonton 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.959 / def 0.955 | FC Edmonton attack 0.830 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: HFX Wanderers FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
HFX Wanderers FC xG
Expected Goals
0.93
FC Edmonton xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton kick off?
HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Wanderers Grounds.
What was the final score in HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton?
HFX Wanderers FC 3 - 1 FC Edmonton.
Where is HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton being played?
The match is being played at Wanderers Grounds.
What competition is HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton part of?
HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our statistical model gives HFX Wanderers FC a 55% chance of winning, FC Edmonton a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making HFX Wanderers FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton will score (BTTS).
Will HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton?
Record (3 meetings): HFX Wanderers FC 2W | Draws 0 | FC Edmonton 1W.
What form are HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton in?
HFX Wanderers FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. FC Edmonton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
HFX Wanderers FC's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against FC Edmonton's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — FC Edmonton's attack (0.83x) against HFX Wanderers FC's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
The sample (31/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
HFX Wanderers FC Win
55%
1.83
24%
4.12
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
HFX Wanderers FC xG
Total xG
2.61
0.93
FC Edmonton xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
22%
4.65
4%
25.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.5 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for HFX Wanderers FC and 0.93 for FC Edmonton, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
HFX Wanderers FC come into this having played 28 games, going 8W 11D 9L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, FC Edmonton sit at 1.00 PPG from 28 outings (6W 10D 12L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for HFX Wanderers FC against 1.00 for FC Edmonton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
HFX Wanderers FC's home form reads 7W 4D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — HFX Wanderers FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Edmonton have taken 0.64 points per game from 14 outings (1W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, HFX Wanderers FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
HFX Wanderers FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; FC Edmonton are on 1.21 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Edmonton in 61%.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
HFX Wanderers FC
Current Season
FC Edmonton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton in coming into this match?
HFX Wanderers FC have gone 8W 11D 9L in their last 28 games (1.25 PPG), while FC Edmonton have gone 6W 10D 12L in their last 28 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — HFX Wanderers FC at home or FC Edmonton away?
HFX Wanderers FC's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — HFX Wanderers FC at home: 1.79 PPG; FC Edmonton away: 0.64 PPG.
Have HFX Wanderers FC or FC Edmonton been keeping clean sheets recently?
HFX Wanderers FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, FC Edmonton in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, HFX Wanderers FC have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC Edmonton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
HFX Wanderers FC
1
Draws
2
FC Edmonton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton?
From 7 meetings on record, HFX Wanderers FC have won 4, FC Edmonton have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2022, when FC Edmonton 3-2 HFX Wanderers FC.
Who has won more matches between HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton?
HFX Wanderers FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
HFX Wanderers FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
FC Edmonton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — HFX Wanderers FC 50%, FC Edmonton 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (HFX Wanderers FC) and 50% (FC Edmonton).
On the defensive side: HFX Wanderers FC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; FC Edmonton in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = HFX Wanderers FC home games / FC Edmonton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when HFX Wanderers FC play FC Edmonton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of HFX Wanderers FC's games and 64% of FC Edmonton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of HFX Wanderers FC's recent games and 50% of FC Edmonton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton tend to score early?
HFX Wanderers FC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, FC Edmonton in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
HFX Wanderers FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Edmonton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
HFX Wanderers FC beat FC Edmonton 3-1 at Wanderers Grounds, Regular Season - 3, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting HFX Wanderers FC 1.67 xG and FC Edmonton 0.93 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. HFX Wanderers FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.95 against FC Edmonton attack 0.83 / defence 1.16, drawn from 31/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it HFX Wanderers FC 55% | Draw 24% | FC Edmonton 21%, with HFX Wanderers FC to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HFX Wanderers FC 43%, FC Edmonton 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Edmonton's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — HFX Wanderers FC 1.25 PPG, FC Edmonton 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the HFX Wanderers FC win broke the near-deadlock. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.