Forge 0-1 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Forge at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Forge vs Pacific FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tim Hortons Field plays host to Forge versus Pacific FC in Canadian Premier League, Championship - Final. Kick-off: Sunday 5 December 2021 at 21:30 UTC.
Current Form
Forge's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Forge's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Tim Hortons Field this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Pacific FC have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Pacific FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Forge's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Pacific FC's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Forge half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Pacific FC half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 34% versus Pacific FC 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 41% | Pacific FC 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.39 xG and Pacific FC 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.085 / defence 0.992 | Pacific FC attack 0.770 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.136 / away 1.193. Data: 28 Forge games / 28 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forge 47% | Draw 29% | Pacific FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Forge 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Pacific FC 4.17. Forge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Forge are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Forge if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Forge 50% | Pacific FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Championship - Final | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 47% | Draw 29% | Pacific FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Forge 1.39 / Pacific FC 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.085 / def 0.992 | Pacific FC attack 0.770 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.136 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Forge (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Forge xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Pacific FC xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs Pacific FC kick off?
Forge vs Pacific FC kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Pacific FC?
Forge 0 - 1 Pacific FC.
Where is Forge vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs Pacific FC part of?
Forge vs Pacific FC is a Championship - Final fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 47% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Forge and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Pacific FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forge and Pacific FC in?
Forge (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Pacific FC (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Forge's attack at 1.08x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pacific FC's attack (0.77x) against Forge's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
47%
2.13
29%
3.39
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Forge xG
Total xG
2.30
0.91
Pacific FC xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
6%
17.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.7 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Forge and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Forge and 0.91 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Forge come into this having played 29 games, going 17W 2D 10L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Pacific FC sit at 1.66 PPG from 29 outings (14W 6D 9L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.83 PPG for Forge against 1.66 for Pacific FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Forge's home form reads 9W 1D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Pacific FC have taken 1.27 points per game from 15 outings (5W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Forge are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.69 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pacific FC in 66%.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Current Season
Pacific FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 17W 2D 10L in their last 29 games (1.83 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 14W 6D 9L in their last 29 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or Pacific FC away?
Forge's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.87 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Forge or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Forge go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Forge won 4-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Forge have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pacific FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Forge
1
Draws
1
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 8, Pacific FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Forge and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Pacific FC 0-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and Pacific FC?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 40%, Pacific FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Forge) and 53% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: Forge keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Forge have failed to score in 27% of games; Pacific FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Forge's recent matches and 53% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forge vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Forge's recent games and 53% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pacific FC defy the odds to beat Forge 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat Forge 0-1 at Tim Hortons Field, Championship - Final, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.39 xG and Pacific FC 0.91 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Forge fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.08 / defence 0.99 against Pacific FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.13, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 47% | Draw 29% | Pacific FC 24%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Pacific FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 41%, Pacific FC 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (29 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pacific FC's trading profile (29 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Forge 1.83 PPG, Pacific FC 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacific FC win broke the near-deadlock. Forge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward. Pacific FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.