Forge 2-1 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Forge at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forge vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Forge host Cavalry FC at Tim Hortons Field in Canadian Premier League, Championship - Semi-finals. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 October 2022 at 22:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Forge — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Forge's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Tim Hortons Field this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Forge are significantly better at Tim Hortons Field than their overall form suggests.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Cavalry FC have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Forge 1.30 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Forge in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Cavalry FC in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 40% versus Cavalry FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 45% | Cavalry FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.45 xG and Cavalry FC 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.098 / defence 0.833 | Cavalry FC attack 0.984 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.133. Data: 56 Forge games / 56 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forge 49% | Draw 27% | Cavalry FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Forge 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Cavalry FC 4.17. Forge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Forge are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Forge 40% | Cavalry FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Championship - Semi-finals | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 49% | Draw 27% | Cavalry FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Forge 1.45 / Cavalry FC 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.098 / def 0.833 | Cavalry FC attack 0.984 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Forge (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Forge xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Cavalry FC xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Forge vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Forge 2 - 1 Cavalry FC.
Where is Forge vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs Cavalry FC part of?
Forge vs Cavalry FC is a Championship - Semi-finals fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 49% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Forge and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forge and Cavalry FC in?
Forge (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Cavalry FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Forge's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Cavalry FC's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Cavalry FC's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
49%
2.04
27%
3.75
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Forge xG
Total xG
2.37
0.93
Cavalry FC xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
6%
17.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Forge and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Forge and 0.93 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Forge come into this having played 58 games, going 31W 8D 19L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Cavalry FC sit at 1.69 PPG from 58 outings (28W 14D 16L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Forge on 1.74 PPG, Cavalry FC on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Forge's home form reads 16W 3D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Cavalry FC have taken 1.57 points per game from 28 outings (12W 8D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Forge are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.29 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Current Season
Cavalry FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 31W 8D 19L in their last 58 games (1.74 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 28W 14D 16L in their last 58 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or Cavalry FC away?
Forge's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.82 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Forge or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Forge and Cavalry FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Forge's record when hosting Cavalry FC specifically: 3W 2D 2L from 7 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Forge
3
Draws
4
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 3, Cavalry FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Forge and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Forge 1-0 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Forge and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 43%, Cavalry FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Forge) and 50% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Forge keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cavalry FC in 32%; Cavalry FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play Cavalry FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Forge's recent matches and 50% of Cavalry FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forge vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Forge's recent games and 50% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Forge edge out Cavalry FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat Cavalry FC 2-1 at Tim Hortons Field, Championship - Semi-finals, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.45 xG and Cavalry FC 0.93 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.10 / defence 0.83 against Cavalry FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.01, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 49% | Draw 27% | Cavalry FC 24%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 45%, Cavalry FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Forge 1.74 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Forge win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.