FC Edmonton 0-0 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Edmonton at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Pacific FC travel to Clarke Field to take on FC Edmonton. The game is scheduled for Thursday 28 April 2022, 02:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Edmonton stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
FC Edmonton's home record at Clarke Field: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pacific FC — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pacific FC's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pacific FC are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for FC Edmonton, 2 for Pacific FC and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2021, ended 1–5 with Pacific FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Edmonton in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Edmonton 61% and Pacific FC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Edmonton 46% | Pacific FC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Edmonton 1.33 xG and Pacific FC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Edmonton attack 0.900 / defence 0.919 | Pacific FC attack 0.977 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.179. Data: 31 FC Edmonton games / 31 Pacific FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Edmonton 43% | Draw 27% | Pacific FC 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Edmonton 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Pacific FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Edmonton as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pacific FC (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Edmonton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: FC Edmonton 70% | Pacific FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Clarke Field • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Apr 2022, 02:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Edmonton 43% | Draw 27% | Pacific FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG FC Edmonton 1.33 / Pacific FC 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: FC Edmonton attack 0.900 / def 0.919 | Pacific FC attack 0.977 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.540 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: FC Edmonton (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
FC Edmonton xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Pacific FC xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC kick off?
FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC kicked off at 02:00 on Thursday 28 April 2022 at Clarke Field.
What was the final score in FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC?
FC Edmonton 0 - 0 Pacific FC.
Where is FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at Clarke Field.
What competition is FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC part of?
FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Edmonton a 43% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Edmonton the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC Edmonton and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Pacific FC?
Record (5 meetings): FC Edmonton 1W | Draws 2 | Pacific FC 2W.
What form are FC Edmonton and Pacific FC in?
FC Edmonton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Pacific FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Edmonton's attack rating (0.90) and Pacific FC's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus FC Edmonton's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Edmonton Win
43%
2.33
27%
3.65
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
FC Edmonton xG
Total xG
2.39
1.06
Pacific FC xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
15%
6.71
8%
12.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are FC Edmonton and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for FC Edmonton and 1.06 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Edmonton come into this having played 28 games, going 6W 10D 12L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-W.
On the other side, Pacific FC sit at 1.68 PPG from 28 outings (14W 5D 9L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Pacific FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of FC Edmonton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Edmonton's home form reads 5W 4D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Pacific FC have taken 1.50 points per game from 14 outings (6W 3D 5L).
The Goals Picture
FC Edmonton are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.64 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Edmonton have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Pacific FC in 64%.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Edmonton
Current Season
Pacific FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Edmonton and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
FC Edmonton have gone 6W 10D 12L in their last 28 games (1.00 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 14W 5D 9L in their last 28 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Edmonton at home or Pacific FC away?
Pacific FC's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Edmonton at home: 1.36 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Edmonton and Pacific FC runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pacific FC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2021, when Pacific FC won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Edmonton's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
FC Edmonton
3
Draws
5
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Pacific FC?
From 9 meetings on record, FC Edmonton have won 1, Pacific FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Edmonton and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 October 2022, when Pacific FC 1-0 FC Edmonton.
Who has won more matches between FC Edmonton and Pacific FC?
Pacific FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Edmonton see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Pacific FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Edmonton 57%, Pacific FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (FC Edmonton) and 43% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC in 36%; Pacific FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Edmonton home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Edmonton play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of FC Edmonton's recent matches and 50% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of FC Edmonton's recent games and 43% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at FC Edmonton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Edmonton and Pacific FC finished level at 0-0 at Clarke Field, Regular Season - 3, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Edmonton 1.33 xG and Pacific FC 1.06 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Edmonton fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Pacific FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Edmonton attack 0.90 / defence 0.92 against Pacific FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.96, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Edmonton 43% | Draw 27% | Pacific FC 30%, with FC Edmonton to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Edmonton 46%, Pacific FC 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Edmonton's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pacific FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacific FC arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.